f62098bReset cache: discard draws made before auto-thinningJeremy Magland 1# Cached entropy estimates
3285002estimates: run 8 from efed18agithub-actions[bot] 3Machine-generated by [`.github/workflows/estimates.yml`][wf] on `main` — do not
4edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent
5pasts, appends one record per cell to `runs.jsonl`, and rebuilds
6`estimates.json` from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.
8- **`runs.jsonl`** — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the
9 cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares,
10 the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times
11 (`thin='auto'` matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the
12 seed, and the code commit that produced them.
13- **`estimates.json`** — pooled `mean` and `se` per cell over every past ever
14 drawn for it, alongside the analytic `predicted` rate for comparison.
16The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the
17entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.
19Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
20`access-control-allow-origin: *`):
22 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
a2fe0c1estimates: run 44 from efed18agithub-actions[bot] 24## Current state (37 runs, generated 2026-08-05T20:46:58Z)
26| cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
27| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
a2fe0c1estimates: run 44 from efed18agithub-actions[bot] 28| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9410 | 0.0065 | 296 | 0.9513 |
29| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5538 | 0.0141 | 296 | 2.5680 |
30| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3185 | 0.0070 | 296 | 1.3319 |
31| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9802 | 0.0290 | 296 | 2.9938 |
32| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7134 | 0.0079 | 296 | 1.7342 |
33| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1347 | 0.0147 | 296 | 2.1476 |
34| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4847 | 0.0143 | 296 | 0.6166 |
35| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4528 | 0.0108 | 296 | 1.4888 |
36| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7519 | 0.0164 | 296 | 0.8251 |
37| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6510 | 0.0120 | 296 | 1.7179 |
38| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9991 | 0.0102 | 296 | 1.0415 |
39| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2185 | 0.0111 | 296 | 1.2632 |
40| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4862 | 0.0124 | 296 | 0.6100 |
41| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1994 | 0.0183 | 296 | 3.1777 |
42| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9713 | 0.0066 | 296 | 0.9825 |
43| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0845 | 0.0148 | 296 | 4.1125 |
44| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5607 | 0.0067 | 296 | 1.5529 |
45| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2931 | 0.0083 | 296 | 2.3064 |
46| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1042 | 0.0029 | 296 | 2.1048 |
47| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0064 | 0.0228 | 296 | 6.0473 |
48| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0609 | 0.0048 | 296 | 3.0620 |
49| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0261 | 0.0475 | 296 | 7.0472 |
50| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0322 | 0.0078 | 296 | 4.0508 |
51| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0678 | 0.0180 | 296 | 5.0480 |
53[wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml