estimates: run 8 from efed18a
3 changed files+543−5
README.mdmodified+49−5View file
@@ -1,9 +1,53 @@
11 # Cached entropy estimates
22
3-Cache reset on 2026-08-01: estimates recorded before then were drawn without
4-auto-thinning, whose heavy-tailed outliers on slow-mixing cells polluted the
5-pooled means (one telescoping realization on `bp300-6000_s32` returned 305
6-bits). The [estimates workflow][wf] repopulates this branch on its next run;
7-see the main README's Tuning section for the details.
3+Machine-generated by [`.github/workflows/estimates.yml`][wf] on `main` — do not
4+edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent
5+pasts, appends one record per cell to `runs.jsonl`, and rebuilds
6+`estimates.json` from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.
7+
8+- **`runs.jsonl`** — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the
9+ cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares,
10+ the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times
11+ (`thin='auto'` matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the
12+ seed, and the code commit that produced them.
13+- **`estimates.json`** — pooled `mean` and `se` per cell over every past ever
14+ drawn for it, alongside the analytic `predicted` rate for comparison.
15+
16+The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the
17+entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.
18+
19+Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
20+`access-control-allow-origin: *`):
21+
22+ https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
23+
24+## Current state (1 runs, generated 2026-08-01T18:23:44Z)
25+
26+| cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
27+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9699 | 0.0285 | 8 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5432 | 0.0369 | 8 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3452 | 0.0154 | 8 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 3.1159 | 0.2659 | 8 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.6886 | 0.0300 | 8 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3012 | 0.2393 | 8 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4771 | 0.0892 | 8 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4606 | 0.0735 | 8 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7039 | 0.1098 | 8 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.5142 | 0.0933 | 8 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0170 | 0.0736 | 8 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2914 | 0.0281 | 8 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.5034 | 0.0713 | 8 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.0902 | 0.0279 | 8 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9670 | 0.0345 | 8 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0581 | 0.0769 | 8 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.6456 | 0.0865 | 8 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3203 | 0.0493 | 8 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.0902 | 0.0180 | 8 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.8213 | 0.0778 | 8 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0579 | 0.0320 | 8 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9500 | 0.1415 | 8 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0221 | 0.0486 | 8 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0557 | 0.0927 | 8 | 5.0480 |
852
953 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonadded+470−0View file
@@ -0,0 +1,470 @@
1+{
2+ "cells": [
3+ {
4+ "L": 101,
5+ "M": 512,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
7+ "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:54:49Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9698610738695368,
10+ "n_pasts": 8,
11+ "n_runs": 1,
12+ "params": {
13+ "filter": "bandpass",
14+ "high": 6000.0,
15+ "low": 300.0,
16+ "rate": 30000.0,
17+ "sigma": 1.0,
18+ "taps": 101
19+ },
20+ "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21+ "sd": 0.0805347273237696,
22+ "se": 0.02847332590582351
23+ },
24+ {
25+ "L": 101,
26+ "M": 512,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
28+ "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T18:15:46Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5431571575810126,
31+ "n_pasts": 8,
32+ "n_runs": 1,
33+ "params": {
34+ "filter": "bandpass",
35+ "high": 6000.0,
36+ "low": 300.0,
37+ "rate": 30000.0,
38+ "sigma": 16.0,
39+ "taps": 101
40+ },
41+ "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42+ "sd": 0.10448375960143222,
43+ "se": 0.03694058746901888
44+ },
45+ {
46+ "L": 101,
47+ "M": 512,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
49+ "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:55:42Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3451704018916346,
52+ "n_pasts": 8,
53+ "n_runs": 1,
54+ "params": {
55+ "filter": "bandpass",
56+ "high": 6000.0,
57+ "low": 300.0,
58+ "rate": 30000.0,
59+ "sigma": 2.0,
60+ "taps": 101
61+ },
62+ "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63+ "sd": 0.043604078197688884,
64+ "se": 0.015416369690487151
65+ },
66+ {
67+ "L": 101,
68+ "M": 512,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
70+ "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T18:23:43Z",
72+ "mean": 3.115911650594618,
73+ "n_pasts": 8,
74+ "n_runs": 1,
75+ "params": {
76+ "filter": "bandpass",
77+ "high": 6000.0,
78+ "low": 300.0,
79+ "rate": 30000.0,
80+ "sigma": 32.0,
81+ "taps": 101
82+ },
83+ "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84+ "sd": 0.7519464206199745,
85+ "se": 0.265853206554668
86+ },
87+ {
88+ "L": 101,
89+ "M": 512,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
91+ "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:56:33Z",
93+ "mean": 1.6886008309843086,
94+ "n_pasts": 8,
95+ "n_runs": 1,
96+ "params": {
97+ "filter": "bandpass",
98+ "high": 6000.0,
99+ "low": 300.0,
100+ "rate": 30000.0,
101+ "sigma": 4.0,
102+ "taps": 101
103+ },
104+ "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105+ "sd": 0.08491512507852991,
106+ "se": 0.030022030384166183
107+ },
108+ {
109+ "L": 101,
110+ "M": 512,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
112+ "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T18:10:14Z",
114+ "mean": 2.301212545818745,
115+ "n_pasts": 8,
116+ "n_runs": 1,
117+ "params": {
118+ "filter": "bandpass",
119+ "high": 6000.0,
120+ "low": 300.0,
121+ "rate": 30000.0,
122+ "sigma": 8.0,
123+ "taps": 101
124+ },
125+ "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126+ "sd": 0.6768440070252378,
127+ "se": 0.23930049358651043
128+ },
129+ {
130+ "L": 101,
131+ "M": 512,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
133+ "id": "lp3000_s1",
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:46:09Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4770739150563378,
136+ "n_pasts": 8,
137+ "n_runs": 1,
138+ "params": {
139+ "filter": "lowpass",
140+ "high": 3000.0,
141+ "rate": 30000.0,
142+ "sigma": 1.0,
143+ "taps": 101
144+ },
145+ "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146+ "sd": 0.252365768801978,
147+ "se": 0.08922477322961754
148+ },
149+ {
150+ "L": 101,
151+ "M": 512,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
153+ "id": "lp3000_s16",
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:52:30Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4605964893803915,
156+ "n_pasts": 8,
157+ "n_runs": 1,
158+ "params": {
159+ "filter": "lowpass",
160+ "high": 3000.0,
161+ "rate": 30000.0,
162+ "sigma": 16.0,
163+ "taps": 101
164+ },
165+ "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166+ "sd": 0.20784476700171717,
167+ "se": 0.07348422209052609
168+ },
169+ {
170+ "L": 101,
171+ "M": 512,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
173+ "id": "lp3000_s2",
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:47:33Z",
175+ "mean": 0.703899762158474,
176+ "n_pasts": 8,
177+ "n_runs": 1,
178+ "params": {
179+ "filter": "lowpass",
180+ "high": 3000.0,
181+ "rate": 30000.0,
182+ "sigma": 2.0,
183+ "taps": 101
184+ },
185+ "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186+ "sd": 0.3106910084160898,
187+ "se": 0.10984585945235192
188+ },
189+ {
190+ "L": 101,
191+ "M": 512,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
193+ "id": "lp3000_s32",
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:53:58Z",
195+ "mean": 1.5141870127313566,
196+ "n_pasts": 8,
197+ "n_runs": 1,
198+ "params": {
199+ "filter": "lowpass",
200+ "high": 3000.0,
201+ "rate": 30000.0,
202+ "sigma": 32.0,
203+ "taps": 101
204+ },
205+ "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206+ "sd": 0.2639641481242779,
207+ "se": 0.09332541956440359
208+ },
209+ {
210+ "L": 101,
211+ "M": 512,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
213+ "id": "lp3000_s4",
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:48:38Z",
215+ "mean": 1.016965161515133,
216+ "n_pasts": 8,
217+ "n_runs": 1,
218+ "params": {
219+ "filter": "lowpass",
220+ "high": 3000.0,
221+ "rate": 30000.0,
222+ "sigma": 4.0,
223+ "taps": 101
224+ },
225+ "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226+ "sd": 0.20809314925870562,
227+ "se": 0.07357203847964756
228+ },
229+ {
230+ "L": 101,
231+ "M": 512,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
233+ "id": "lp3000_s8",
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:49:36Z",
235+ "mean": 1.291413466386491,
236+ "n_pasts": 8,
237+ "n_runs": 1,
238+ "params": {
239+ "filter": "lowpass",
240+ "high": 3000.0,
241+ "rate": 30000.0,
242+ "sigma": 8.0,
243+ "taps": 101
244+ },
245+ "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246+ "sd": 0.07935942768366881,
247+ "se": 0.028057794733102822
248+ },
249+ {
250+ "L": 8,
251+ "M": 512,
252+ "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253+ "id": "ma8_s1",
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:35Z",
255+ "mean": 0.5034314756163569,
256+ "n_pasts": 8,
257+ "n_runs": 1,
258+ "params": {
259+ "filter": "moving-average",
260+ "sigma": 1.0,
261+ "width": 8
262+ },
263+ "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264+ "sd": 0.20153259970236623,
265+ "se": 0.07125253393984857
266+ },
267+ {
268+ "L": 8,
269+ "M": 512,
270+ "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271+ "id": "ma8_s16",
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:45:16Z",
273+ "mean": 3.0901784665401113,
274+ "n_pasts": 8,
275+ "n_runs": 1,
276+ "params": {
277+ "filter": "moving-average",
278+ "sigma": 16.0,
279+ "width": 8
280+ },
281+ "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282+ "sd": 0.07878871554300972,
283+ "se": 0.027856017520720054
284+ },
285+ {
286+ "L": 8,
287+ "M": 512,
288+ "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289+ "id": "ma8_s2",
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:40Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9670469519080346,
292+ "n_pasts": 8,
293+ "n_runs": 1,
294+ "params": {
295+ "filter": "moving-average",
296+ "sigma": 2.0,
297+ "width": 8
298+ },
299+ "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300+ "sd": 0.09765077751590148,
301+ "se": 0.03452476348481639
302+ },
303+ {
304+ "L": 8,
305+ "M": 512,
306+ "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307+ "id": "ma8_s32",
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:45:23Z",
309+ "mean": 4.058115058438865,
310+ "n_pasts": 8,
311+ "n_runs": 1,
312+ "params": {
313+ "filter": "moving-average",
314+ "sigma": 32.0,
315+ "width": 8
316+ },
317+ "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318+ "sd": 0.21758591793640078,
319+ "se": 0.07692823903176432
320+ },
321+ {
322+ "L": 8,
323+ "M": 512,
324+ "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325+ "id": "ma8_s4",
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:45:07Z",
327+ "mean": 1.645612979809619,
328+ "n_pasts": 8,
329+ "n_runs": 1,
330+ "params": {
331+ "filter": "moving-average",
332+ "sigma": 4.0,
333+ "width": 8
334+ },
335+ "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336+ "sd": 0.2445811807642315,
337+ "se": 0.08647250573450044
338+ },
339+ {
340+ "L": 8,
341+ "M": 512,
342+ "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343+ "id": "ma8_s8",
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:45:12Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3202814638293097,
346+ "n_pasts": 8,
347+ "n_runs": 1,
348+ "params": {
349+ "filter": "moving-average",
350+ "sigma": 8.0,
351+ "width": 8
352+ },
353+ "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354+ "sd": 0.13947473609939695,
355+ "se": 0.04931176585004387
356+ },
357+ {
358+ "L": 1,
359+ "M": 512,
360+ "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361+ "id": "none_s1",
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:17Z",
363+ "mean": 2.0901531919677323,
364+ "n_pasts": 8,
365+ "n_runs": 1,
366+ "params": {
367+ "filter": "none",
368+ "sigma": 1.0
369+ },
370+ "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371+ "sd": 0.050949307094709934,
372+ "se": 0.018013300271712638
373+ },
374+ {
375+ "L": 1,
376+ "M": 512,
377+ "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378+ "id": "none_s16",
379+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:20Z",
380+ "mean": 5.821327951438487,
381+ "n_pasts": 8,
382+ "n_runs": 1,
383+ "params": {
384+ "filter": "none",
385+ "sigma": 16.0
386+ },
387+ "predicted": 6.047330360616512,
388+ "sd": 0.2201786258407115,
389+ "se": 0.07784489970215135
390+ },
391+ {
392+ "L": 1,
393+ "M": 512,
394+ "highres_szego": 3.047095585180641,
395+ "id": "none_s2",
396+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:18Z",
397+ "mean": 3.057908074417068,
398+ "n_pasts": 8,
399+ "n_runs": 1,
400+ "params": {
401+ "filter": "none",
402+ "sigma": 2.0
403+ },
404+ "predicted": 3.0619692493630017,
405+ "sd": 0.0905632426825708,
406+ "se": 0.03201894151354439
407+ },
408+ {
409+ "L": 1,
410+ "M": 512,
411+ "highres_szego": 7.047095585180641,
412+ "id": "none_s32",
413+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:21Z",
414+ "mean": 6.950006964134099,
415+ "n_pasts": 8,
416+ "n_runs": 1,
417+ "params": {
418+ "filter": "none",
419+ "sigma": 32.0
420+ },
421+ "predicted": 7.047154286203572,
422+ "sd": 0.400122057367157,
423+ "se": 0.14146451003331476
424+ },
425+ {
426+ "L": 1,
427+ "M": 512,
428+ "highres_szego": 4.047095585180641,
429+ "id": "none_s4",
430+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:19Z",
431+ "mean": 4.022064629924884,
432+ "n_pasts": 8,
433+ "n_runs": 1,
434+ "params": {
435+ "filter": "none",
436+ "sigma": 4.0
437+ },
438+ "predicted": 4.050842853422905,
439+ "sd": 0.13758097965734356,
440+ "se": 0.048642221838998044
441+ },
442+ {
443+ "L": 1,
444+ "M": 512,
445+ "highres_szego": 5.047095585180641,
446+ "id": "none_s8",
447+ "last_utc": "2026-08-01T17:44:19Z",
448+ "mean": 5.055714741133362,
449+ "n_pasts": 8,
450+ "n_runs": 1,
451+ "params": {
452+ "filter": "none",
453+ "sigma": 8.0
454+ },
455+ "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456+ "sd": 0.2621950199389582,
457+ "se": 0.0926999382960897
458+ }
459+ ],
460+ "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-01T18:23:44Z",
462+ "settings": {
463+ "n0": 128,
464+ "pasts_per_run": 8,
465+ "r": 1.5,
466+ "reps": 8,
467+ "thin": "auto"
468+ },
469+ "total_runs": 1
470+}
runs.jsonladded+24−0View file
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
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