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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 152 from efed18a 4fd25d2 140 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 152 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 152 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 152 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (139 runs, generated 2026-08-15T23:11:15Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9332 0.0037 1112 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5502 0.0081 1112 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3124 0.0034 1112 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9831 0.0183 1112 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7248 0.0042 1112 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1297 0.0057 1112 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4777 0.0070 1112 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4410 0.0058 1112 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7611 0.0080 1112 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6672 0.0064 1112 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9930 0.0057 1112 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2093 0.0064 1112 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4817 0.0063 1112 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1753 0.0074 1112 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9756 0.0028 1112 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0895 0.0074 1112 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0032 1112 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3089 0.0050 1112 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0020 1112 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0091 0.0146 1112 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0670 0.0035 1112 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0473 0.0314 1112 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0387 0.0041 1112 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0521 0.0087 1112 5.0480
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