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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 78 from efed18a fc1e21e 71 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 78 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 78 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 78 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (70 runs, generated 2026-08-09T09:38:48Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9334 0.0052 560 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5485 0.0095 560 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3128 0.0049 560 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9589 0.0183 560 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7202 0.0056 560 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1337 0.0093 560 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4776 0.0098 560 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4495 0.0079 560 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7589 0.0115 560 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6550 0.0088 560 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9854 0.0082 560 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2243 0.0089 560 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4753 0.0087 560 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1840 0.0113 560 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9721 0.0043 560 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0852 0.0101 560 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5569 0.0046 560 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3024 0.0063 560 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1075 0.0032 560 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0315 0.0211 560 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0665 0.0040 560 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0796 0.0450 560 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0378 0.0058 560 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0719 0.0136 560 5.0480
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