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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 121 from efed18a fb3d8cd 109 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 121 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 121 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 121 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (108 runs, generated 2026-08-13T08:22:25Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9318 0.0042 864 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5432 0.0078 864 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3098 0.0039 864 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9769 0.0199 864 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7231 0.0046 864 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1315 0.0068 864 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4765 0.0079 864 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4441 0.0065 864 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7625 0.0092 864 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6651 0.0070 864 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9926 0.0064 864 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2112 0.0074 864 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4741 0.0070 864 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1803 0.0088 864 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9755 0.0032 864 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0878 0.0082 864 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5587 0.0036 864 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3061 0.0054 864 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0024 864 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0183 0.0162 864 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0655 0.0031 864 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0673 0.0376 864 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0365 0.0046 864 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0598 0.0105 864 5.0480
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