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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 169 from efed18a f8993f3 157 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 169 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 169 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 169 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (156 runs, generated 2026-08-17T09:24:02Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9341 0.0035 1248 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5528 0.0075 1248 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3133 0.0033 1248 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9839 0.0181 1248 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7266 0.0042 1248 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1302 0.0053 1248 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4799 0.0067 1248 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4446 0.0060 1248 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7588 0.0076 1248 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6672 0.0059 1248 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9926 0.0054 1248 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2090 0.0060 1248 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4818 0.0059 1248 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1743 0.0068 1248 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0027 1248 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0886 0.0069 1248 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5558 0.0030 1248 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3081 0.0047 1248 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0019 1248 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0200 0.0163 1248 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0650 0.0032 1248 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0426 0.0291 1248 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0410 0.0040 1248 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0457 0.0079 1248 5.0480
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