estimates: run 169 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (155 runs, generated 2026-08-17T08:39:15Z)
24+## Current state (156 runs, generated 2026-08-17T09:24:02Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9338 | 0.0035 | 1240 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5529 | 0.0075 | 1240 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3133 | 0.0033 | 1240 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9845 | 0.0182 | 1240 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7263 | 0.0042 | 1240 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1298 | 0.0054 | 1240 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4809 | 0.0067 | 1240 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4442 | 0.0060 | 1240 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7588 | 0.0076 | 1240 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6672 | 0.0060 | 1240 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9927 | 0.0054 | 1240 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2087 | 0.0060 | 1240 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4816 | 0.0060 | 1240 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1742 | 0.0068 | 1240 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9747 | 0.0027 | 1240 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0890 | 0.0069 | 1240 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5559 | 0.0030 | 1240 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3082 | 0.0047 | 1240 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1054 | 0.0019 | 1240 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0215 | 0.0164 | 1240 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0652 | 0.0032 | 1240 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0417 | 0.0292 | 1240 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0411 | 0.0041 | 1240 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0464 | 0.0079 | 1240 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9341 | 0.0035 | 1248 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5528 | 0.0075 | 1248 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3133 | 0.0033 | 1248 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9839 | 0.0181 | 1248 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7266 | 0.0042 | 1248 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1302 | 0.0053 | 1248 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4799 | 0.0067 | 1248 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4446 | 0.0060 | 1248 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7588 | 0.0076 | 1248 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6672 | 0.0059 | 1248 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9926 | 0.0054 | 1248 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2090 | 0.0060 | 1248 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4818 | 0.0059 | 1248 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1743 | 0.0068 | 1248 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9750 | 0.0027 | 1248 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0886 | 0.0069 | 1248 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5558 | 0.0030 | 1248 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3081 | 0.0047 | 1248 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1054 | 0.0019 | 1248 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0200 | 0.0163 | 1248 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0650 | 0.0032 | 1248 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0426 | 0.0291 | 1248 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0410 | 0.0040 | 1248 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0457 | 0.0079 | 1248 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:56:13Z",
9- "mean": 0.9338198675086913,
10- "n_pasts": 1240,
11- "n_runs": 155,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:15:14Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9341255860184984,
10+ "n_pasts": 1248,
11+ "n_runs": 156,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12272569548132885,
22- "se": 0.0034851755557411125
21+ "sd": 0.12252614731425392,
22+ "se": 0.0034683385671536813
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T08:30:58Z",
30- "mean": 2.5528502756881806,
31- "n_pasts": 1240,
32- "n_runs": 155,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:21:36Z",
30+ "mean": 2.552763105719881,
31+ "n_pasts": 1248,
32+ "n_runs": 156,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.26507013339113333,
43- "se": 0.007527485958247111
42+ "sd": 0.2643224498613787,
43+ "se": 0.007482155989671887
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T08:14:29Z",
51- "mean": 1.313258794382977,
52- "n_pasts": 1240,
53- "n_runs": 155,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:15:53Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3133154694524376,
52+ "n_pasts": 1248,
53+ "n_runs": 156,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11506066831397364,
64- "se": 0.00326750341126488
63+ "sd": 0.11486528145101556,
64+ "se": 0.0032514830051885036
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T08:39:14Z",
72- "mean": 2.9845087514324873,
73- "n_pasts": 1240,
74- "n_runs": 155,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:24:02Z",
72+ "mean": 2.98386128462571,
73+ "n_pasts": 1248,
74+ "n_runs": 156,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.6400247471673396,
85- "se": 0.018175481468233806
84+ "sd": 0.6383772161367534,
85+ "se": 0.01807049652382017
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T08:15:46Z",
93- "mean": 1.7262697769805346,
94- "n_pasts": 1240,
95- "n_runs": 155,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:16:54Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7266240010341738,
94+ "n_pasts": 1248,
95+ "n_runs": 156,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.14910679372455307,
106- "se": 0.004234348403124795
105+ "sd": 0.14898292291172027,
106+ "se": 0.004217248552316889
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T08:19:47Z",
114- "mean": 2.1298143746105613,
115- "n_pasts": 1240,
116- "n_runs": 155,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:19:56Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1302348930660444,
115+ "n_pasts": 1248,
116+ "n_runs": 156,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.1885838968397885,
127- "se": 0.005355422797929276
126+ "sd": 0.1882379870787116,
127+ "se": 0.005328438743070808
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:30:24Z",
135- "mean": 0.48086913358026967,
136- "n_pasts": 1240,
137- "n_runs": 155,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:56Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47987218740218607,
136+ "n_pasts": 1248,
137+ "n_runs": 156,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23460582597434818,
147- "se": 0.006662357762271923
146+ "sd": 0.23505115899441137,
147+ "se": 0.006653575729461048
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:50:51Z",
155- "mean": 1.4442310537882685,
156- "n_pasts": 1240,
157- "n_runs": 155,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:13:18Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4446021950249222,
156+ "n_pasts": 1248,
157+ "n_runs": 156,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.21016860583162203,
167- "se": 0.00596838734346382
166+ "sd": 0.21042256568688827,
167+ "se": 0.005956415964826156
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:31:26Z",
175- "mean": 0.75877836048801,
176- "n_pasts": 1240,
177- "n_runs": 155,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:06:31Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7587824808082969,
176+ "n_pasts": 1248,
177+ "n_runs": 156,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2680188618430522,
187- "se": 0.007611224219259529
186+ "sd": 0.26774344026784025,
187+ "se": 0.007578993711453522
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:54:58Z",
195- "mean": 1.6672299855770703,
196- "n_pasts": 1240,
197- "n_runs": 155,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:14:32Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6671536452386824,
196+ "n_pasts": 1248,
197+ "n_runs": 156,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.21007195091107175,
207- "se": 0.0059656425281655835
206+ "sd": 0.20955277661233254,
207+ "se": 0.005931794909984423
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:32:25Z",
215- "mean": 0.9927306503687953,
216- "n_pasts": 1240,
217- "n_runs": 155,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:07:08Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9926204080631188,
216+ "n_pasts": 1248,
217+ "n_runs": 156,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.18926476288859606,
227- "se": 0.005374758094427142
226+ "sd": 0.18918033775957163,
227+ "se": 0.005355113793922016
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:33:27Z",
235- "mean": 1.2086758797473451,
236- "n_pasts": 1240,
237- "n_runs": 155,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:09:12Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2089804500477401,
236+ "n_pasts": 1248,
237+ "n_runs": 156,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21293338560838407,
247- "se": 0.006046901813128769
246+ "sd": 0.2130328598301839,
247+ "se": 0.006030305367596551
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:28:28Z",
255- "mean": 0.4816424390782374,
256- "n_pasts": 1240,
257- "n_runs": 155,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:04:53Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48176456486774855,
256+ "n_pasts": 1248,
257+ "n_runs": 156,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.21021602452610827,
265- "se": 0.00596973394389872
264+ "sd": 0.210036785089494,
265+ "se": 0.005945495702059953
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:29:13Z",
273- "mean": 3.1741645289141873,
274- "n_pasts": 1240,
275- "n_runs": 155,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:18Z",
273+ "mean": 3.174267355217571,
274+ "n_pasts": 1248,
275+ "n_runs": 156,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2395912796691669,
283- "se": 0.006803935133525076
282+ "sd": 0.23890755183421586,
283+ "se": 0.006762738355639806
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:28:32Z",
291- "mean": 0.9746815795283204,
292- "n_pasts": 1240,
293- "n_runs": 155,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:05Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9749847526547918,
292+ "n_pasts": 1248,
293+ "n_runs": 156,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09459161381596697,
301- "se": 0.0026862213243653297
300+ "sd": 0.094809361111064,
301+ "se": 0.002683761555199488
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:29:21Z",
309- "mean": 4.089013871933568,
310- "n_pasts": 1240,
311- "n_runs": 155,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:22Z",
309+ "mean": 4.088623657693261,
310+ "n_pasts": 1248,
311+ "n_runs": 156,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.2428875712733486,
319- "se": 0.006897543524811287
318+ "sd": 0.24245184039850332,
319+ "se": 0.006863066269232906
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:28:41Z",
327- "mean": 1.555910548066204,
328- "n_pasts": 1240,
329- "n_runs": 155,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:10Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5558159606869353,
328+ "n_pasts": 1248,
329+ "n_runs": 156,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.1053803740737604,
337- "se": 0.0029926015276287394
336+ "sd": 0.10520758542317558,
337+ "se": 0.002978103319811687
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-17T07:28:57Z",
345- "mean": 2.3082173281522578,
346- "n_pasts": 1240,
347- "n_runs": 155,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-17T09:05:14Z",
345+ "mean": 2.308147560185973,
346+ "n_pasts": 1248,
347+ "n_runs": 156,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.16676953283250312,
355- "se": 0.004735936488203729
354+ "sd": 0.16689326472209706,
355+ "se": 0.004724235269956124
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
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450- "n_runs": 155,
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.27888918538079405,
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456+ "sd": 0.27844803005086893,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-17T08:39:15Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-17T09:24:02Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 155
469+ "total_runs": 156
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -3718,3 +3718,27 @@
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