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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 79 from efed18a f7f6f09 72 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 79 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 79 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 79 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (71 runs, generated 2026-08-09T11:23:24Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9330 0.0052 568 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5490 0.0094 568 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3134 0.0049 568 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9572 0.0181 568 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7203 0.0055 568 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1332 0.0091 568 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4775 0.0098 568 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4489 0.0078 568 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7565 0.0115 568 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6579 0.0088 568 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9872 0.0081 568 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2252 0.0088 568 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4768 0.0087 568 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1838 0.0112 568 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9721 0.0043 568 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0851 0.0100 568 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5570 0.0045 568 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3024 0.0062 568 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1078 0.0032 568 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0330 0.0209 568 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0667 0.0040 568 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0781 0.0446 568 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0392 0.0059 568 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0704 0.0134 568 5.0480
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