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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 145 from efed18a d24f278 133 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 145 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 145 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 145 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (132 runs, generated 2026-08-15T09:08:31Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9326 0.0039 1056 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5518 0.0085 1056 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3110 0.0035 1056 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9835 0.0189 1056 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7239 0.0043 1056 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1294 0.0059 1056 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4790 0.0072 1056 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4415 0.0060 1056 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7611 0.0082 1056 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6683 0.0065 1056 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9932 0.0058 1056 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2093 0.0067 1056 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4816 0.0065 1056 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1760 0.0076 1056 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9755 0.0029 1056 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0883 0.0075 1056 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0033 1056 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3092 0.0051 1056 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0020 1056 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0136 0.0152 1056 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0667 0.0036 1056 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0460 0.0325 1056 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0385 0.0042 1056 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0511 0.0090 1056 5.0480
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