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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 85 from efed18a c64e6fd 78 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 85 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 85 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 85 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (77 runs, generated 2026-08-09T23:33:30Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9320 0.0050 616 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5454 0.0089 616 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3111 0.0048 616 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9605 0.0171 616 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7207 0.0053 616 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1367 0.0088 616 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4755 0.0095 616 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4475 0.0074 616 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7599 0.0110 616 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6552 0.0084 616 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9892 0.0077 616 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2261 0.0084 616 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4773 0.0084 616 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1821 0.0105 616 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9730 0.0041 616 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0818 0.0095 616 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5564 0.0043 616 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3011 0.0060 616 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1078 0.0030 616 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0303 0.0196 616 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0656 0.0038 616 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0870 0.0429 616 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0374 0.0056 616 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0704 0.0127 616 5.0480
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