estimates: run 85 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (76 runs, generated 2026-08-09T21:20:05Z)
24+## Current state (77 runs, generated 2026-08-09T23:33:30Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9319 | 0.0050 | 608 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5458 | 0.0090 | 608 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3117 | 0.0047 | 608 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9589 | 0.0172 | 608 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7205 | 0.0053 | 608 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1363 | 0.0088 | 608 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4744 | 0.0095 | 608 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4481 | 0.0075 | 608 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7572 | 0.0111 | 608 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6556 | 0.0085 | 608 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9882 | 0.0078 | 608 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2263 | 0.0084 | 608 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4774 | 0.0084 | 608 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1833 | 0.0106 | 608 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9731 | 0.0041 | 608 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0825 | 0.0096 | 608 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5563 | 0.0043 | 608 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3017 | 0.0061 | 608 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1076 | 0.0030 | 608 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0326 | 0.0199 | 608 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0656 | 0.0038 | 608 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0819 | 0.0429 | 608 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0378 | 0.0056 | 608 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0727 | 0.0129 | 608 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9320 | 0.0050 | 616 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5454 | 0.0089 | 616 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3111 | 0.0048 | 616 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9605 | 0.0171 | 616 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7207 | 0.0053 | 616 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1367 | 0.0088 | 616 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4755 | 0.0095 | 616 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4475 | 0.0074 | 616 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7599 | 0.0110 | 616 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6552 | 0.0084 | 616 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9892 | 0.0077 | 616 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2261 | 0.0084 | 616 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4773 | 0.0084 | 616 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1821 | 0.0105 | 616 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9730 | 0.0041 | 616 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0818 | 0.0095 | 616 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5564 | 0.0043 | 616 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3011 | 0.0060 | 616 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1078 | 0.0030 | 616 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0303 | 0.0196 | 616 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0656 | 0.0038 | 616 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0870 | 0.0429 | 616 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0374 | 0.0056 | 616 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0704 | 0.0127 | 616 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:06:53Z",
9- "mean": 0.9318698195858242,
10- "n_pasts": 608,
11- "n_runs": 76,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:06:27Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9320327889765208,
10+ "n_pasts": 616,
11+ "n_runs": 77,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12434420821169251,
22- "se": 0.005042823541370048
21+ "sd": 0.12428256852584586,
22+ "se": 0.005007487387309228
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:14:59Z",
30- "mean": 2.5458184178440795,
31- "n_pasts": 608,
32- "n_runs": 76,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:28:04Z",
30+ "mean": 2.545404706091177,
31+ "n_pasts": 616,
32+ "n_runs": 77,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.22089241179812083,
43- "se": 0.008958370239723195
42+ "sd": 0.2198389035299584,
43+ "se": 0.008857561842530035
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:07:55Z",
51- "mean": 1.3117029245915983,
52- "n_pasts": 608,
53- "n_runs": 76,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:07:39Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3110515485709802,
52+ "n_pasts": 616,
53+ "n_runs": 77,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11465957803008966,
64- "se": 0.004650059923573676
63+ "sd": 0.1181951612226632,
64+ "se": 0.0047622187574952075
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:20:05Z",
72- "mean": 2.958882483748495,
73- "n_pasts": 608,
74- "n_runs": 76,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:33:30Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9605167121603952,
73+ "n_pasts": 616,
74+ "n_runs": 77,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.42520577036077545,
85- "se": 0.017244371085231417
84+ "sd": 0.423429460147507,
85+ "se": 0.017060459131586537
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:10:02Z",
93- "mean": 1.7205275075824094,
94- "n_pasts": 608,
95- "n_runs": 76,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:08:29Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7206546711511492,
94+ "n_pasts": 616,
95+ "n_runs": 77,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13093850225348588,
106- "se": 0.005310257479073509
105+ "sd": 0.13049407696359222,
106+ "se": 0.005257756194327899
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:11:33Z",
114- "mean": 2.136277213671439,
115- "n_pasts": 608,
116- "n_runs": 76,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:24:01Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1367208244874023,
115+ "n_pasts": 616,
116+ "n_runs": 77,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.21814470769420163,
127- "se": 0.008846936123577044
126+ "sd": 0.21811948403205675,
127+ "se": 0.00878828445671993
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:59:15Z",
135- "mean": 0.47443989614628923,
136- "n_pasts": 608,
137- "n_runs": 76,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:57:09Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4755137561377965,
136+ "n_pasts": 616,
137+ "n_runs": 77,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2344733715614204,
147- "se": 0.009509150888003736
146+ "sd": 0.2346611288720526,
147+ "se": 0.009454766320460958
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:03:52Z",
155- "mean": 1.4481160963960662,
156- "n_pasts": 608,
157- "n_runs": 76,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:01:53Z",
155+ "mean": 1.447473055103755,
156+ "n_pasts": 616,
157+ "n_runs": 77,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18488934363698672,
167- "se": 0.007498253019181474
166+ "sd": 0.18447839112263448,
167+ "se": 0.007432846196653737
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:00:57Z",
175- "mean": 0.7571927031379518,
176- "n_pasts": 608,
177- "n_runs": 76,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:58:44Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7599455852051641,
176+ "n_pasts": 616,
177+ "n_runs": 77,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2732173407589782,
187- "se": 0.011080426323872312
186+ "sd": 0.27256070417872397,
187+ "se": 0.010981783725907211
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:05:59Z",
195- "mean": 1.6555936446150519,
196- "n_pasts": 608,
197- "n_runs": 76,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:03:53Z",
195+ "mean": 1.655248026894214,
196+ "n_pasts": 616,
197+ "n_runs": 77,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20991567347470186,
207- "se": 0.008513204717171813
206+ "sd": 0.2087326286872071,
207+ "se": 0.008410077276876716
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:02:12Z",
215- "mean": 0.9882304157871257,
216- "n_pasts": 608,
217- "n_runs": 76,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:59:44Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9891769234260515,
216+ "n_pasts": 616,
217+ "n_runs": 77,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19233832807806697,
227- "se": 0.007800349229684717
226+ "sd": 0.1916345055491481,
227+ "se": 0.007721174263557636
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T21:02:53Z",
235- "mean": 1.2262777422679683,
236- "n_pasts": 608,
237- "n_runs": 76,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T23:01:01Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2261445198054852,
236+ "n_pasts": 616,
237+ "n_runs": 77,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.20689905710935277,
247- "se": 0.008390864768723501
246+ "sd": 0.20757440556779577,
247+ "se": 0.00836341113752238
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:57:43Z",
255- "mean": 0.47735443664083416,
256- "n_pasts": 608,
257- "n_runs": 76,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:20Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4772797020416639,
256+ "n_pasts": 616,
257+ "n_runs": 77,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20771931519679077,
265- "se": 0.008424130626883049
264+ "sd": 0.20746103559904572,
265+ "se": 0.008358843331309897
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:58:03Z",
273- "mean": 3.183308615009841,
274- "n_pasts": 608,
275- "n_runs": 76,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:40Z",
273+ "mean": 3.182058989793204,
274+ "n_pasts": 616,
275+ "n_runs": 77,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.26189379511034877,
283- "se": 0.010621195907032381
282+ "sd": 0.2606076074014026,
283+ "se": 0.010500179732188043
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:57:46Z",
291- "mean": 0.9731376352631216,
292- "n_pasts": 608,
293- "n_runs": 76,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:25Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9730255122359902,
292+ "n_pasts": 616,
293+ "n_runs": 77,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.10123512919828451,
301- "se": 0.004105626631725517
300+ "sd": 0.10073525673091804,
301+ "se": 0.004058739158038302
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:58:09Z",
309- "mean": 4.082503311243511,
310- "n_pasts": 608,
311- "n_runs": 76,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:44Z",
309+ "mean": 4.081832380704925,
310+ "n_pasts": 616,
311+ "n_runs": 77,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.2358759842877911,
319- "se": 0.009566034345445722
318+ "sd": 0.23466727892887515,
319+ "se": 0.009455014113311842
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:57:51Z",
327- "mean": 1.556256835477859,
328- "n_pasts": 608,
329- "n_runs": 76,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:30Z",
327+ "mean": 1.556435784140488,
328+ "n_pasts": 616,
329+ "n_runs": 77,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10710610504619854,
337- "se": 0.004343726143093766
336+ "sd": 0.10672337997963587,
337+ "se": 0.0043000075192998555
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:57:59Z",
345- "mean": 2.301745568585082,
346- "n_pasts": 608,
347- "n_runs": 76,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:35Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3010680825019354,
346+ "n_pasts": 616,
347+ "n_runs": 77,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14963766451949345,
355- "se": 0.0060686086482601275
354+ "sd": 0.14945870250059562,
355+ "se": 0.006021862732420874
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T20:57:32Z",
363- "mean": 2.1076490560642456,
364- "n_pasts": 608,
365- "n_runs": 76,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T22:55:10Z",
363+ "mean": 2.107844926821749,
364+ "n_pasts": 616,
365+ "n_runs": 77,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.07454354110262455,
372- "se": 0.0030231397934467916
371+ "sd": 0.07458282781369767,
372+ "se": 0.0030050277687114213
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
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378378 "id": "none_s16",
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442442 {
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450- "n_runs": 76,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3172582630766881,
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456+ "sd": 0.3163936672854244,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-09T21:20:05Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-09T23:33:30Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 76
469+ "total_runs": 77
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -1822,3 +1822,27 @@
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