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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 104 from efed18a c525991 92 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 104 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 104 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 104 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (91 runs, generated 2026-08-11T17:54:53Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9321 0.0046 728 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5404 0.0081 728 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3107 0.0043 728 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9754 0.0197 728 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7217 0.0048 728 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1342 0.0077 728 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4764 0.0086 728 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4456 0.0068 728 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7640 0.0100 728 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6641 0.0077 728 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9882 0.0072 728 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2161 0.0081 728 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4735 0.0076 728 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1852 0.0099 728 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9747 0.0037 728 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0873 0.0089 728 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5544 0.0038 728 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3031 0.0055 728 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1064 0.0027 728 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0167 0.0176 728 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0660 0.0035 728 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0785 0.0379 728 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0392 0.0051 728 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0636 0.0112 728 5.0480
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