estimates: run 104 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (90 runs, generated 2026-08-11T15:50:54Z)
24+## Current state (91 runs, generated 2026-08-11T17:54:53Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9324 | 0.0046 | 720 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5417 | 0.0082 | 720 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3106 | 0.0044 | 720 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9756 | 0.0199 | 720 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7212 | 0.0048 | 720 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1342 | 0.0078 | 720 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4757 | 0.0087 | 720 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4457 | 0.0069 | 720 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7628 | 0.0100 | 720 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6642 | 0.0077 | 720 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9883 | 0.0072 | 720 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2172 | 0.0081 | 720 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4737 | 0.0076 | 720 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1845 | 0.0100 | 720 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9749 | 0.0037 | 720 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0879 | 0.0090 | 720 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5550 | 0.0038 | 720 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3032 | 0.0055 | 720 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1064 | 0.0027 | 720 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0184 | 0.0178 | 720 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0659 | 0.0035 | 720 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0821 | 0.0382 | 720 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0395 | 0.0051 | 720 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0635 | 0.0113 | 720 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9321 | 0.0046 | 728 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5404 | 0.0081 | 728 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3107 | 0.0043 | 728 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9754 | 0.0197 | 728 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7217 | 0.0048 | 728 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1342 | 0.0077 | 728 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4764 | 0.0086 | 728 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4456 | 0.0068 | 728 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7640 | 0.0100 | 728 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6641 | 0.0077 | 728 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9882 | 0.0072 | 728 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2161 | 0.0081 | 728 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4735 | 0.0076 | 728 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1852 | 0.0099 | 728 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9747 | 0.0037 | 728 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0873 | 0.0089 | 728 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5544 | 0.0038 | 728 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3031 | 0.0055 | 728 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1064 | 0.0027 | 728 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0167 | 0.0176 | 728 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0660 | 0.0035 | 728 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0785 | 0.0379 | 728 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0392 | 0.0051 | 728 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0636 | 0.0112 | 728 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:38:12Z",
9- "mean": 0.9324018701147959,
10- "n_pasts": 720,
11- "n_runs": 90,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:38:46Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9320773547808021,
10+ "n_pasts": 728,
11+ "n_runs": 91,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12413084274079496,
22- "se": 0.004626083374545897
21+ "sd": 0.12379000829379225,
22+ "se": 0.004587962952862278
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:49:10Z",
30- "mean": 2.5417467448595303,
31- "n_pasts": 720,
32- "n_runs": 90,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:44:35Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5404047502341625,
31+ "n_pasts": 728,
32+ "n_runs": 91,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2187887530409706,
43- "se": 0.008153775408533735
42+ "sd": 0.21878410362927853,
43+ "se": 0.008108678365575713
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:39:31Z",
51- "mean": 1.3105663810722858,
52- "n_pasts": 720,
53- "n_runs": 90,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:39:54Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3106627103527488,
52+ "n_pasts": 728,
53+ "n_runs": 91,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11755331160141295,
64- "se": 0.004380953262016233
63+ "sd": 0.11718365074020237,
64+ "se": 0.004343115051751408
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:50:53Z",
72- "mean": 2.9755984936121047,
73- "n_pasts": 720,
74- "n_runs": 90,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:54:53Z",
72+ "mean": 2.975430601215343,
73+ "n_pasts": 728,
74+ "n_runs": 91,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5351765516032204,
85- "se": 0.019944852489145414
84+ "sd": 0.532766700371115,
85+ "se": 0.01974564762949393
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:40:22Z",
93- "mean": 1.7212338372403884,
94- "n_pasts": 720,
95- "n_runs": 90,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:40:59Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7216558401601971,
94+ "n_pasts": 728,
95+ "n_runs": 91,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.12999017646274424,
106- "se": 0.004844447849631488
105+ "sd": 0.13007211046507502,
106+ "se": 0.004820793149945206
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:45:57Z",
114- "mean": 2.134166480131317,
115- "n_pasts": 720,
116- "n_runs": 90,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:42:53Z",
114+ "mean": 2.134179854126187,
115+ "n_pasts": 728,
116+ "n_runs": 91,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.20976411492295244,
127- "se": 0.007817447003463329
126+ "sd": 0.20898119550121697,
127+ "se": 0.0077453584180148536
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:28:05Z",
135- "mean": 0.47574974692092314,
136- "n_pasts": 720,
137- "n_runs": 90,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:25:50Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47640444510928154,
136+ "n_pasts": 728,
137+ "n_runs": 91,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23412734757362147,
147- "se": 0.008725411076105635
146+ "sd": 0.23327731615832256,
147+ "se": 0.008645832559744613
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:35:11Z",
155- "mean": 1.445725503827692,
156- "n_pasts": 720,
157- "n_runs": 90,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:36:00Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4455702991638757,
156+ "n_pasts": 728,
157+ "n_runs": 91,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.1850169289923488,
167- "se": 0.00689517383691906
166+ "sd": 0.184782716947621,
167+ "se": 0.006848503133410288
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:29:06Z",
175- "mean": 0.7627671501375579,
176- "n_pasts": 720,
177- "n_runs": 90,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:27:54Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7639923001686317,
176+ "n_pasts": 728,
177+ "n_runs": 91,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.26964863541374606,
187- "se": 0.010049211313753222
186+ "sd": 0.2688716939376511,
187+ "se": 0.009965047970039831
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:37:21Z",
195- "mean": 1.6641554139825063,
196- "n_pasts": 720,
197- "n_runs": 90,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:37:51Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6640765252276755,
196+ "n_pasts": 728,
197+ "n_runs": 91,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20693320945641375,
207- "se": 0.007711945385779058
206+ "sd": 0.20656049559221215,
207+ "se": 0.007655641310345283
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:29:48Z",
215- "mean": 0.9882648263449899,
216- "n_pasts": 720,
217- "n_runs": 90,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:28:47Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9881841529056744,
216+ "n_pasts": 728,
217+ "n_runs": 91,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19421732522307175,
227- "se": 0.007238052360116216
226+ "sd": 0.19434744869610224,
227+ "se": 0.00720299567704071
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:30:25Z",
235- "mean": 1.2171874429189191,
236- "n_pasts": 720,
237- "n_runs": 90,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:30:37Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2160603788868705,
236+ "n_pasts": 728,
237+ "n_runs": 91,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21610920954706364,
247- "se": 0.008053914718516348
246+ "sd": 0.21875624767417026,
247+ "se": 0.008107645955191266
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:25Z",
255- "mean": 0.47366996440591075,
256- "n_pasts": 720,
257- "n_runs": 90,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:23:41Z",
255+ "mean": 0.47345430653593146,
256+ "n_pasts": 728,
257+ "n_runs": 91,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20456168925194174,
265- "se": 0.007623564045992163
264+ "sd": 0.20454493457119902,
265+ "se": 0.007580939648869547
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:58Z",
273- "mean": 3.184481966124746,
274- "n_pasts": 720,
275- "n_runs": 90,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:24:34Z",
273+ "mean": 3.185165900085763,
274+ "n_pasts": 728,
275+ "n_runs": 91,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2672560529832073,
283- "se": 0.009960045031145616
282+ "sd": 0.266507812421655,
283+ "se": 0.009877436692119835
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:34Z",
291- "mean": 0.9748609297247668,
292- "n_pasts": 720,
293- "n_runs": 90,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:23:53Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9746965836915853,
292+ "n_pasts": 728,
293+ "n_runs": 91,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.09896639148204976,
301- "se": 0.00368825964736199
300+ "sd": 0.09865825379957048,
301+ "se": 0.003656518160595455
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:27:03Z",
309- "mean": 4.0879035395365095,
310- "n_pasts": 720,
311- "n_runs": 90,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:24:40Z",
309+ "mean": 4.087293994773078,
310+ "n_pasts": 728,
311+ "n_runs": 91,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24120039419879,
319- "se": 0.008989007960470672
318+ "sd": 0.24018901986832553,
319+ "se": 0.008901997342344798
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:45Z",
327- "mean": 1.555005156474349,
328- "n_pasts": 720,
329- "n_runs": 90,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:23:58Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5544051309286468,
328+ "n_pasts": 728,
329+ "n_runs": 91,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10316195357581304,
337- "se": 0.0038446190147865904
336+ "sd": 0.10296418405999808,
337+ "se": 0.0038161065537520708
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:52Z",
345- "mean": 2.303198781474966,
346- "n_pasts": 720,
347- "n_runs": 90,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:24:06Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3031015209931582,
346+ "n_pasts": 728,
347+ "n_runs": 91,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14740954093624617,
355- "se": 0.005493629234424741
354+ "sd": 0.14709007245514863,
355+ "se": 0.005451520784750539
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T15:26:15Z",
363- "mean": 2.1064261998616534,
364- "n_pasts": 720,
365- "n_runs": 90,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T17:23:29Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1063559200513144,
364+ "n_pasts": 728,
365+ "n_runs": 91,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.07273448782552751,
372- "se": 0.0027106543181085064
371+ "sd": 0.07242156913067534,
372+ "se": 0.0026841219314818897
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
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450- "n_runs": 90,
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3029997945680228,
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456+ "sd": 0.3017980957863664,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-11T15:50:54Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-11T17:54:53Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 90
469+ "total_runs": 91
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -2158,3 +2158,27 @@
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