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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 117 from efed18a bd46e91 105 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 117 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 117 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 117 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (104 runs, generated 2026-08-12T21:39:13Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9315 0.0043 832 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5442 0.0079 832 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3102 0.0040 832 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9688 0.0179 832 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7235 0.0047 832 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1335 0.0070 832 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4759 0.0081 832 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4451 0.0065 832 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7614 0.0094 832 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6655 0.0071 832 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9912 0.0066 832 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2115 0.0076 832 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4716 0.0071 832 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1812 0.0090 832 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9757 0.0033 832 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0845 0.0082 832 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5573 0.0037 832 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3057 0.0055 832 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0024 832 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0160 0.0163 832 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0659 0.0032 832 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0682 0.0388 832 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0371 0.0047 832 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0627 0.0108 832 5.0480
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