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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 106 from efed18a 958057d 94 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 106 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 106 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 106 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (93 runs, generated 2026-08-11T21:28:06Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9322 0.0045 744 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5402 0.0080 744 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3108 0.0043 744 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9740 0.0194 744 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7216 0.0048 744 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1332 0.0076 744 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4766 0.0086 744 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4449 0.0068 744 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7630 0.0099 744 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6644 0.0076 744 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9873 0.0071 744 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2139 0.0082 744 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4719 0.0075 744 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1829 0.0097 744 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0036 744 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0867 0.0087 744 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5554 0.0038 744 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3028 0.0054 744 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0026 744 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0161 0.0173 744 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0661 0.0034 744 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0707 0.0372 744 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0377 0.0050 744 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0632 0.0110 744 5.0480
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