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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 113 from efed18a 918fd41 101 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 113 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 113 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 113 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (100 runs, generated 2026-08-12T14:19:39Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9312 0.0044 800 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5422 0.0077 800 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3098 0.0041 800 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9701 0.0184 800 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7242 0.0048 800 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1336 0.0072 800 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4771 0.0083 800 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4457 0.0066 800 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7627 0.0095 800 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6650 0.0071 800 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9885 0.0068 800 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2133 0.0078 800 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4728 0.0072 800 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1813 0.0092 800 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9758 0.0034 800 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0863 0.0084 800 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0037 800 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3046 0.0057 800 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1061 0.0025 800 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0151 0.0167 800 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0659 0.0032 800 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0749 0.0398 800 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0375 0.0048 800 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0670 0.0111 800 5.0480
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