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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 177 from efed18a 810a2c1 165 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 177 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 177 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 177 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (164 runs, generated 2026-08-18T02:10:33Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9345 0.0034 1312 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5523 0.0072 1312 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3129 0.0031 1312 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9857 0.0177 1312 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7270 0.0041 1312 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1297 0.0052 1312 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4791 0.0065 1312 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4445 0.0058 1312 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7593 0.0074 1312 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6671 0.0058 1312 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9914 0.0052 1312 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2090 0.0058 1312 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4810 0.0058 1312 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1718 0.0065 1312 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9741 0.0026 1312 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0877 0.0067 1312 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5564 0.0029 1312 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3117 0.0050 1312 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1058 0.0018 1312 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0257 0.0160 1312 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0637 0.0031 1312 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0462 0.0286 1312 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0431 0.0040 1312 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0439 0.0076 1312 5.0480
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