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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 93 from efed18a 72a99ac 81 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 93 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 93 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 93 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (80 runs, generated 2026-08-10T18:39:50Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9333 0.0049 640 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5463 0.0089 640 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3099 0.0047 640 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9619 0.0165 640 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7210 0.0051 640 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1355 0.0085 640 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4755 0.0093 640 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4462 0.0073 640 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7620 0.0108 640 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6563 0.0082 640 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9876 0.0077 640 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2226 0.0084 640 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4814 0.0083 640 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1898 0.0110 640 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9737 0.0040 640 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0828 0.0092 640 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0042 640 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3009 0.0059 640 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1071 0.0029 640 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0258 0.0191 640 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0654 0.0037 640 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0861 0.0416 640 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0378 0.0054 640 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0689 0.0124 640 5.0480
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