estimates: run 93 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (79 runs, generated 2026-08-10T17:54:41Z)
24+## Current state (80 runs, generated 2026-08-10T18:39:50Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9330 | 0.0049 | 632 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5442 | 0.0087 | 632 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3106 | 0.0047 | 632 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9623 | 0.0167 | 632 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7211 | 0.0052 | 632 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1363 | 0.0086 | 632 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4739 | 0.0094 | 632 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4468 | 0.0074 | 632 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7619 | 0.0109 | 632 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6561 | 0.0083 | 632 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9887 | 0.0077 | 632 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2232 | 0.0085 | 632 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4800 | 0.0083 | 632 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1883 | 0.0111 | 632 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9735 | 0.0040 | 632 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0821 | 0.0093 | 632 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5567 | 0.0042 | 632 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3019 | 0.0060 | 632 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1071 | 0.0029 | 632 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0295 | 0.0193 | 632 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0659 | 0.0037 | 632 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0836 | 0.0419 | 632 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0377 | 0.0055 | 632 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0705 | 0.0125 | 632 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9333 | 0.0049 | 640 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5463 | 0.0089 | 640 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3099 | 0.0047 | 640 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9619 | 0.0165 | 640 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7210 | 0.0051 | 640 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1355 | 0.0085 | 640 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4755 | 0.0093 | 640 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4462 | 0.0073 | 640 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7620 | 0.0108 | 640 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6563 | 0.0082 | 640 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9876 | 0.0077 | 640 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2226 | 0.0084 | 640 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4814 | 0.0083 | 640 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1898 | 0.0110 | 640 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9737 | 0.0040 | 640 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0828 | 0.0092 | 640 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5563 | 0.0042 | 640 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3009 | 0.0059 | 640 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1071 | 0.0029 | 640 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0258 | 0.0191 | 640 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0654 | 0.0037 | 640 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0861 | 0.0416 | 640 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0378 | 0.0054 | 640 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0689 | 0.0124 | 640 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:45:22Z",
9- "mean": 0.9330171069212841,
10- "n_pasts": 632,
11- "n_runs": 79,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:18:45Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9333483431208641,
10+ "n_pasts": 640,
11+ "n_runs": 80,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12332035849694677,
22- "se": 0.004905420474470419
21+ "sd": 0.12309535055562248,
22+ "se": 0.004865770964158004
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:51:18Z",
30- "mean": 2.544244300695657,
31- "n_pasts": 632,
32- "n_runs": 79,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:30:57Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5462737664021304,
31+ "n_pasts": 640,
32+ "n_runs": 80,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.21854155390722454,
43- "se": 0.008693116255298772
42+ "sd": 0.2249509462966649,
43+ "se": 0.008891966901346002
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:46:15Z",
51- "mean": 1.3105670948817048,
52- "n_pasts": 632,
53- "n_runs": 79,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:19:47Z",
51+ "mean": 1.309932493210129,
52+ "n_pasts": 640,
53+ "n_runs": 80,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11859841554651675,
64- "se": 0.004717591668986577
63+ "sd": 0.11822741054116488,
64+ "se": 0.004673348739673516
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:54:41Z",
72- "mean": 2.962312327568459,
73- "n_pasts": 632,
74- "n_runs": 79,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:39:49Z",
72+ "mean": 2.961912378150667,
73+ "n_pasts": 640,
74+ "n_runs": 80,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.41959088188842225,
85- "se": 0.016690429123002636
84+ "sd": 0.4181153278362012,
85+ "se": 0.016527459507379966
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:47:25Z",
93- "mean": 1.721070946531345,
94- "n_pasts": 632,
95- "n_runs": 79,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:20:55Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7209962671751327,
94+ "n_pasts": 640,
95+ "n_runs": 80,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13035268057450924,
106- "se": 0.0051851512271441505
105+ "sd": 0.1300550698318231,
106+ "se": 0.005140878024010159
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:48:52Z",
114- "mean": 2.136259196054099,
115- "n_pasts": 632,
116- "n_runs": 79,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:23:31Z",
114+ "mean": 2.135488262804238,
115+ "n_pasts": 640,
116+ "n_runs": 80,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.21614423746523967,
127- "se": 0.008597756127404007
126+ "sd": 0.21547499818035076,
127+ "se": 0.008517397163381816
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:13:58Z",
135- "mean": 0.4739061939710881,
136- "n_pasts": 632,
137- "n_runs": 79,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:57:31Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47546778842527876,
136+ "n_pasts": 640,
137+ "n_runs": 80,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23543930406411648,
147- "se": 0.009365272666473622
146+ "sd": 0.23542736587740917,
147+ "se": 0.00930608374633023
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:42:17Z",
155- "mean": 1.4468080682719997,
156- "n_pasts": 632,
157- "n_runs": 79,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:11:56Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4462167033881355,
156+ "n_pasts": 640,
157+ "n_runs": 80,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18488246340214412,
167- "se": 0.007354229523796429
166+ "sd": 0.18531232865974473,
167+ "se": 0.00732511296343114
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:35:09Z",
175- "mean": 0.7619039718422451,
176- "n_pasts": 632,
177- "n_runs": 79,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:59:08Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7619535801496851,
176+ "n_pasts": 640,
177+ "n_runs": 80,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2737657914311497,
187- "se": 0.01088981847655924
186+ "sd": 0.27307562600189095,
187+ "se": 0.01079426189552844
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:43:38Z",
195- "mean": 1.6561263220636993,
196- "n_pasts": 632,
197- "n_runs": 79,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:16:58Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6563182551053899,
196+ "n_pasts": 640,
197+ "n_runs": 80,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2075737356633656,
207- "se": 0.0082568398705279
206+ "sd": 0.20683309144892578,
207+ "se": 0.008175795805906268
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:37:20Z",
215- "mean": 0.9887092298425185,
216- "n_pasts": 632,
217- "n_runs": 79,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:04:53Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9876125400920088,
216+ "n_pasts": 640,
217+ "n_runs": 80,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19266201529397167,
227- "se": 0.007663683482554754
226+ "sd": 0.19567672891773835,
227+ "se": 0.007734801855892349
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:37:54Z",
235- "mean": 1.2232041397770352,
236- "n_pasts": 632,
237- "n_runs": 79,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T18:06:15Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2225915001668948,
236+ "n_pasts": 640,
237+ "n_runs": 80,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21244254790447423,
247- "se": 0.008450510822712797
246+ "sd": 0.21141029658207433,
247+ "se": 0.008356725725138313
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:25Z",
255- "mean": 0.47995723580696426,
256- "n_pasts": 632,
257- "n_runs": 79,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:27Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48137672013802496,
256+ "n_pasts": 640,
257+ "n_runs": 80,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20927147113638592,
265- "se": 0.008324372161636142
264+ "sd": 0.2099656729016862,
265+ "se": 0.008299621960240294
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:49Z",
273- "mean": 3.1883440829710223,
274- "n_pasts": 632,
275- "n_runs": 79,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:51Z",
273+ "mean": 3.189774176763298,
274+ "n_pasts": 640,
275+ "n_runs": 80,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.27779273488769884,
283- "se": 0.011050001686550313
282+ "sd": 0.27722422745417563,
283+ "se": 0.010958249766697214
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:31Z",
291- "mean": 0.9735374377117114,
292- "n_pasts": 632,
293- "n_runs": 79,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:32Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9737265339438579,
292+ "n_pasts": 640,
293+ "n_runs": 80,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.10073913338044174,
301- "se": 0.004007187568118044
300+ "sd": 0.10025534209081276,
301+ "se": 0.003962940357578947
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
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306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
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309- "mean": 4.082090413939838,
310- "n_pasts": 632,
311- "n_runs": 79,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:58Z",
309+ "mean": 4.082755436740202,
310+ "n_pasts": 640,
311+ "n_runs": 80,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
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318+ "sd": 0.23288117315806398,
319+ "se": 0.009205436641894372
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:39Z",
327- "mean": 1.5567021914442245,
328- "n_pasts": 632,
329- "n_runs": 79,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:38Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5563368844801726,
328+ "n_pasts": 640,
329+ "n_runs": 80,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10575663317845384,
337- "se": 0.004206772993750982
336+ "sd": 0.10545344961062986,
337+ "se": 0.004168413598642334
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:43Z",
345- "mean": 2.3019360176003927,
346- "n_pasts": 632,
347- "n_runs": 79,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-10T17:55:43Z",
345+ "mean": 2.300921437179152,
346+ "n_pasts": 640,
347+ "n_runs": 80,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.15032962001812067,
355- "se": 0.005979791211639277
354+ "sd": 0.1500278141876391,
355+ "se": 0.005930370065118297
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-10T16:12:18Z",
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-10T17:54:41Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-10T18:39:50Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 79
469+ "total_runs": 80
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -1894,3 +1894,27 @@
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