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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 123 from efed18a 4499ec4 111 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 123 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 123 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 123 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (110 runs, generated 2026-08-13T11:35:27Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9318 0.0042 880 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5435 0.0076 880 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3098 0.0039 880 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9788 0.0204 880 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7230 0.0045 880 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1314 0.0067 880 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4747 0.0078 880 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4438 0.0064 880 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7633 0.0091 880 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6666 0.0069 880 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9932 0.0063 880 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2109 0.0074 880 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4748 0.0069 880 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1788 0.0086 880 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9749 0.0032 880 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0892 0.0081 880 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5583 0.0036 880 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3060 0.0054 880 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1058 0.0023 880 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0169 0.0161 880 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0655 0.0030 880 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0659 0.0370 880 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0367 0.0045 880 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0583 0.0103 880 5.0480
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