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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 19 from efed18a 3ce4bed 13 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 19 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 19 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 19 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (12 runs, generated 2026-08-02T17:55:56Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9411 0.0129 96 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5286 0.0236 96 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3260 0.0140 96 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9571 0.0408 96 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7029 0.0141 96 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1431 0.0239 96 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4646 0.0230 96 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4641 0.0176 96 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7532 0.0281 96 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6346 0.0238 96 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0181 0.0165 96 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2327 0.0200 96 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4784 0.0204 96 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1817 0.0334 96 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9756 0.0089 96 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0728 0.0229 96 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5599 0.0124 96 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2979 0.0141 96 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.0998 0.0047 96 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9921 0.0358 96 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0557 0.0066 96 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9754 0.0762 96 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0294 0.0130 96 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0676 0.0290 96 5.0480
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