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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 43 from efed18a 34196fe 37 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 43 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 43 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 43 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (36 runs, generated 2026-08-05T18:23:26Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9437 0.0064 288 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5502 0.0136 288 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3184 0.0071 288 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9748 0.0295 288 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7124 0.0077 288 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1363 0.0150 288 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4818 0.0145 288 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4567 0.0107 288 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7514 0.0167 288 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6522 0.0122 288 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9998 0.0104 288 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2189 0.0114 288 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4878 0.0127 288 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1945 0.0180 288 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9712 0.0067 288 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0764 0.0141 288 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5607 0.0068 288 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2948 0.0084 288 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1045 0.0030 288 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0048 0.0233 288 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0610 0.0048 288 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0233 0.0477 288 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0340 0.0079 288 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0667 0.0182 288 5.0480
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