estimates: run 43 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (35 runs, generated 2026-08-05T15:02:12Z)
24+## Current state (36 runs, generated 2026-08-05T18:23:26Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9418 | 0.0065 | 280 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5471 | 0.0138 | 280 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3192 | 0.0072 | 280 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9735 | 0.0301 | 280 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7124 | 0.0079 | 280 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1345 | 0.0153 | 280 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4797 | 0.0147 | 280 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4550 | 0.0110 | 280 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7512 | 0.0169 | 280 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6536 | 0.0125 | 280 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0015 | 0.0105 | 280 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2182 | 0.0116 | 280 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4844 | 0.0127 | 280 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1941 | 0.0184 | 280 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9709 | 0.0069 | 280 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0774 | 0.0145 | 280 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5606 | 0.0070 | 280 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2950 | 0.0086 | 280 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1049 | 0.0031 | 280 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0047 | 0.0239 | 280 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0613 | 0.0050 | 280 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0181 | 0.0487 | 280 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0347 | 0.0081 | 280 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0591 | 0.0154 | 280 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9437 | 0.0064 | 288 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5502 | 0.0136 | 288 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3184 | 0.0071 | 288 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9748 | 0.0295 | 288 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7124 | 0.0077 | 288 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1363 | 0.0150 | 288 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4818 | 0.0145 | 288 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4567 | 0.0107 | 288 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7514 | 0.0167 | 288 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6522 | 0.0122 | 288 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9998 | 0.0104 | 288 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2189 | 0.0114 | 288 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4878 | 0.0127 | 288 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1945 | 0.0180 | 288 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9712 | 0.0067 | 288 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0764 | 0.0141 | 288 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5607 | 0.0068 | 288 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2948 | 0.0084 | 288 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1045 | 0.0030 | 288 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0048 | 0.0233 | 288 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0610 | 0.0048 | 288 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0233 | 0.0477 | 288 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0340 | 0.0079 | 288 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0667 | 0.0182 | 288 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:50:44Z",
9- "mean": 0.9418487248698512,
10- "n_pasts": 280,
11- "n_runs": 35,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:09:15Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9436862261355125,
10+ "n_pasts": 288,
11+ "n_runs": 36,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.10960024560417704,
22- "se": 0.006549867456809425
21+ "sd": 0.10899176248469519,
22+ "se": 0.0064224011955334595
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:58:46Z",
30- "mean": 2.5471087830332677,
31- "n_pasts": 280,
32- "n_runs": 35,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:19:46Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5501691808886147,
31+ "n_pasts": 288,
32+ "n_runs": 36,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.23044189648884597,
43- "se": 0.013771537373637182
42+ "sd": 0.2313528221324047,
43+ "se": 0.013632595781372377
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:51:43Z",
51- "mean": 1.319162633042054,
52- "n_pasts": 280,
53- "n_runs": 35,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:10:10Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3183775900565637,
52+ "n_pasts": 288,
53+ "n_runs": 36,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.12122110460587006,
64- "se": 0.0072443466140026565
63+ "sd": 0.12104604295386008,
64+ "se": 0.0071327064840393814
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T15:02:11Z",
72- "mean": 2.9735385744304423,
73- "n_pasts": 280,
74- "n_runs": 35,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:23:26Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9747908819775195,
73+ "n_pasts": 288,
74+ "n_runs": 36,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5039089981213196,
85- "se": 0.03011432255278162
84+ "sd": 0.49988089797094365,
85+ "se": 0.02945576439507291
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:52:36Z",
93- "mean": 1.7124260701626655,
94- "n_pasts": 280,
95- "n_runs": 35,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:11:19Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7123764894701126,
94+ "n_pasts": 288,
95+ "n_runs": 36,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13213339914855607,
106- "se": 0.007896480945547752
105+ "sd": 0.13139812314594407,
106+ "se": 0.007742708659306842
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:54:11Z",
114- "mean": 2.1344586890443384,
115- "n_pasts": 280,
116- "n_runs": 35,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:14:30Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1362724244747135,
115+ "n_pasts": 288,
116+ "n_runs": 36,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.2559177147100395,
127- "se": 0.015294008712845829
126+ "sd": 0.25393519753869037,
127+ "se": 0.014963275013462786
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:43:10Z",
135- "mean": 0.479704658766311,
136- "n_pasts": 280,
137- "n_runs": 35,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:00:25Z",
135+ "mean": 0.48181519889175267,
136+ "n_pasts": 288,
137+ "n_runs": 36,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2464165320532496,
147- "se": 0.014726204446150476
146+ "sd": 0.24545067628682457,
147+ "se": 0.014463319804103147
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:47:37Z",
155- "mean": 1.4550233589782684,
156- "n_pasts": 280,
157- "n_runs": 35,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:05:08Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4566943538578212,
156+ "n_pasts": 288,
157+ "n_runs": 36,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.1836169173519288,
167- "se": 0.010973209638840707
166+ "sd": 0.1819217024503642,
167+ "se": 0.010719839120637824
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:44:02Z",
175- "mean": 0.7511960477013037,
176- "n_pasts": 280,
177- "n_runs": 35,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:01:46Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7514171677836232,
176+ "n_pasts": 288,
177+ "n_runs": 36,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2835827304083422,
187- "se": 0.016947309624860657
186+ "sd": 0.2826932902649733,
187+ "se": 0.01665786187852497
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:49:48Z",
195- "mean": 1.6536457710534023,
196- "n_pasts": 280,
197- "n_runs": 35,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:08:03Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6522069992209971,
196+ "n_pasts": 288,
197+ "n_runs": 36,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2099583365053465,
207- "se": 0.012547410527972399
206+ "sd": 0.20758135516061899,
207+ "se": 0.012231848656830567
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:45:19Z",
215- "mean": 1.0015131039527387,
216- "n_pasts": 280,
217- "n_runs": 35,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:02:43Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9997994519228615,
216+ "n_pasts": 288,
217+ "n_runs": 36,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.17489635242131915,
227- "se": 0.010452056204109566
226+ "sd": 0.17612438807909458,
227+ "se": 0.010378229095254909
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:46:26Z",
235- "mean": 1.2181612046554273,
236- "n_pasts": 280,
237- "n_runs": 35,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T18:03:46Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2188578749934766,
236+ "n_pasts": 288,
237+ "n_runs": 36,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.1934653148116311,
247- "se": 0.011561763958837326
246+ "sd": 0.1927884410749779,
247+ "se": 0.011360167834875
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:41:55Z",
255- "mean": 0.4844076212564329,
256- "n_pasts": 280,
257- "n_runs": 35,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:58:52Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4877729138262188,
256+ "n_pasts": 288,
257+ "n_runs": 36,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.21261771322298956,
265- "se": 0.012706338684768637
264+ "sd": 0.21509915207904506,
265+ "se": 0.012674839088547435
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:42:14Z",
273- "mean": 3.1941242929098452,
274- "n_pasts": 280,
275- "n_runs": 35,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:59:19Z",
273+ "mean": 3.194464334164882,
274+ "n_pasts": 288,
275+ "n_runs": 36,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.3074423621852444,
283- "se": 0.018373195350257533
282+ "sd": 0.3051883977371668,
283+ "se": 0.01798339879828399
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:42:00Z",
291- "mean": 0.9708680781954072,
292- "n_pasts": 280,
293- "n_runs": 35,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:58:57Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9712234614008075,
292+ "n_pasts": 288,
293+ "n_runs": 36,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.1148517048933326,
301- "se": 0.006863702175967105
300+ "sd": 0.11393661122350529,
301+ "se": 0.006713779201796324
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:42:19Z",
309- "mean": 4.077374502634387,
310- "n_pasts": 280,
311- "n_runs": 35,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:59:24Z",
309+ "mean": 4.076391602587253,
310+ "n_pasts": 288,
311+ "n_runs": 36,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24196618060794192,
319- "se": 0.014460245077699257
318+ "sd": 0.2392902289035198,
319+ "se": 0.014100311960780005
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:42:05Z",
327- "mean": 1.5605882061789,
328- "n_pasts": 280,
329- "n_runs": 35,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:59:06Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5607482082177864,
328+ "n_pasts": 288,
329+ "n_runs": 36,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.11643970711303568,
337- "se": 0.006958603460200887
336+ "sd": 0.11584945308836911,
337+ "se": 0.006826494489628219
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:42:10Z",
345- "mean": 2.294959368900169,
346- "n_pasts": 280,
347- "n_runs": 35,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:59:14Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2947925213700042,
346+ "n_pasts": 288,
347+ "n_runs": 36,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14433126387238926,
355- "se": 0.008625442790083562
354+ "sd": 0.14301767563392748,
355+ "se": 0.008427397355857348
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:41:42Z",
363- "mean": 2.104929479083744,
364- "n_pasts": 280,
365- "n_runs": 35,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T17:58:38Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1045484148549534,
364+ "n_pasts": 288,
365+ "n_runs": 36,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.05121884414332694,
372- "se": 0.0030609113928571855
371+ "sd": 0.0508770516171903,
372+ "se": 0.002997959017107772
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
379- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T14:41:46Z",
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442442 {
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.25826171895209643,
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456+ "sd": 0.3089704384910913,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-05T15:02:12Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-05T18:23:26Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 35
469+ "total_runs": 36
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -838,3 +838,27 @@
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