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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 126 from efed18a 24568d5 114 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 126 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 126 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 126 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (113 runs, generated 2026-08-13T18:10:57Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9317 0.0041 904 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5441 0.0076 904 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3102 0.0039 904 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9762 0.0199 904 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7250 0.0045 904 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1316 0.0065 904 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4761 0.0077 904 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4419 0.0063 904 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7623 0.0090 904 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6671 0.0068 904 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9938 0.0063 904 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2131 0.0073 904 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4759 0.0069 904 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1777 0.0085 904 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9750 0.0031 904 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0879 0.0079 904 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5572 0.0036 904 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3072 0.0054 904 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1057 0.0023 904 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0149 0.0157 904 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0659 0.0030 904 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0635 0.0362 904 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0375 0.0044 904 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0577 0.0101 904 5.0480
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