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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 27 from efed18a 1d4e91c 21 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 27 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 27 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 27 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (20 runs, generated 2026-08-03T18:41:57Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9436 0.0090 160 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5469 0.0182 160 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3216 0.0098 160 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9454 0.0288 160 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7122 0.0103 160 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1459 0.0187 160 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4561 0.0190 160 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4490 0.0129 160 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7287 0.0228 160 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6347 0.0163 160 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0215 0.0120 160 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2257 0.0154 160 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4839 0.0163 160 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.2160 0.0269 160 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9738 0.0099 160 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0885 0.0219 160 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5603 0.0096 160 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2957 0.0111 160 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1043 0.0041 160 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9810 0.0288 160 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0634 0.0063 160 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9600 0.0593 160 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0382 0.0122 160 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0606 0.0211 160 5.0480
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