estimates: run 27 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (19 runs, generated 2026-08-03T16:48:49Z)
24+## Current state (20 runs, generated 2026-08-03T18:41:57Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9416 | 0.0093 | 152 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5467 | 0.0189 | 152 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3237 | 0.0102 | 152 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9493 | 0.0296 | 152 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7148 | 0.0106 | 152 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1476 | 0.0196 | 152 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4605 | 0.0197 | 152 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4527 | 0.0130 | 152 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7251 | 0.0233 | 152 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6381 | 0.0168 | 152 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0194 | 0.0124 | 152 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2309 | 0.0158 | 152 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4856 | 0.0167 | 152 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.2071 | 0.0267 | 152 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9739 | 0.0103 | 152 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0758 | 0.0164 | 152 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5593 | 0.0095 | 152 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2962 | 0.0116 | 152 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1037 | 0.0042 | 152 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9850 | 0.0298 | 152 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0618 | 0.0066 | 152 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9753 | 0.0616 | 152 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0395 | 0.0126 | 152 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0599 | 0.0217 | 152 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9436 | 0.0090 | 160 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5469 | 0.0182 | 160 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3216 | 0.0098 | 160 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9454 | 0.0288 | 160 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7122 | 0.0103 | 160 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1459 | 0.0187 | 160 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4561 | 0.0190 | 160 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4490 | 0.0129 | 160 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7287 | 0.0228 | 160 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6347 | 0.0163 | 160 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0215 | 0.0120 | 160 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2257 | 0.0154 | 160 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4839 | 0.0163 | 160 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.2160 | 0.0269 | 160 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9738 | 0.0099 | 160 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0885 | 0.0219 | 160 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5603 | 0.0096 | 160 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2957 | 0.0111 | 160 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1043 | 0.0041 | 160 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9810 | 0.0288 | 160 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0634 | 0.0063 | 160 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9600 | 0.0593 | 160 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0382 | 0.0122 | 160 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0606 | 0.0211 | 160 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:28:48Z",
9- "mean": 0.9415915198304784,
10- "n_pasts": 152,
11- "n_runs": 19,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:26:16Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9436206993242378,
10+ "n_pasts": 160,
11+ "n_runs": 20,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.11485586250822706,
22- "se": 0.00931604062064203
21+ "sd": 0.11421855969734439,
22+ "se": 0.009029769992688015
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:45:19Z",
30- "mean": 2.546694604185156,
31- "n_pasts": 152,
32- "n_runs": 19,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:39:15Z",
30+ "mean": 2.54694603687184,
31+ "n_pasts": 160,
32+ "n_runs": 20,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2334979440763295,
43- "se": 0.018939184159586744
42+ "sd": 0.23006571753218774,
43+ "se": 0.018188291973066147
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:31:05Z",
51- "mean": 1.3237422462662685,
52- "n_pasts": 152,
53- "n_runs": 19,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:27:10Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3215637335498498,
52+ "n_pasts": 160,
53+ "n_runs": 20,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.12523508957814442,
64- "se": 0.010157907103402468
63+ "sd": 0.12344342323962348,
64+ "se": 0.009759059490134288
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:48:49Z",
72- "mean": 2.9492727476023037,
73- "n_pasts": 152,
74- "n_runs": 19,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:41:57Z",
72+ "mean": 2.945419168418754,
73+ "n_pasts": 160,
74+ "n_runs": 20,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.3651835619174763,
85- "se": 0.02962029819392341
84+ "sd": 0.36456640166681226,
85+ "se": 0.028821504690973315
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:34:48Z",
93- "mean": 1.7147625845071401,
94- "n_pasts": 152,
95- "n_runs": 19,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:28:11Z",
93+ "mean": 1.71223710854659,
94+ "n_pasts": 160,
95+ "n_runs": 20,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1301538781984367,
106- "se": 0.010556873543515286
105+ "sd": 0.1302561443097547,
106+ "se": 0.010297652381260146
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:41:27Z",
114- "mean": 2.147581715495209,
115- "n_pasts": 152,
116- "n_runs": 19,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:30:04Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1458947610227908,
115+ "n_pasts": 160,
116+ "n_runs": 20,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.24138633072462112,
127- "se": 0.019579016805844146
126+ "sd": 0.235941053091243,
127+ "se": 0.018652778032675982
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:24:46Z",
135- "mean": 0.460537864335265,
136- "n_pasts": 152,
137- "n_runs": 19,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:15:31Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4561437882645568,
136+ "n_pasts": 160,
137+ "n_runs": 20,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.24308549583164327,
147- "se": 0.019716837295042613
146+ "sd": 0.2397109500905701,
147+ "se": 0.01895081455922868
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:22:35Z",
155- "mean": 1.4526928924172013,
156- "n_pasts": 152,
157- "n_runs": 19,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:21:45Z",
155+ "mean": 1.449008469821169,
156+ "n_pasts": 160,
157+ "n_runs": 20,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.16080551813533359,
167- "se": 0.013043049838791211
166+ "sd": 0.16301263827649115,
167+ "se": 0.012887280608671422
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:25:51Z",
175- "mean": 0.7250733947720637,
176- "n_pasts": 152,
177- "n_runs": 19,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:16:22Z",
175+ "mean": 0.728698178234477,
176+ "n_pasts": 160,
177+ "n_runs": 20,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.28725405689168815,
187- "se": 0.023299380667273283
186+ "sd": 0.2888938605677957,
187+ "se": 0.022839065035833477
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:28:01Z",
195- "mean": 1.6380874903735152,
196- "n_pasts": 152,
197- "n_runs": 19,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:23:39Z",
195+ "mean": 1.634665698237486,
196+ "n_pasts": 160,
197+ "n_runs": 20,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.206585406158821,
207- "se": 0.016756289085979866
206+ "sd": 0.2058414035718775,
207+ "se": 0.016273191801326296
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:26:47Z",
215- "mean": 1.0194406919843648,
216- "n_pasts": 152,
217- "n_runs": 19,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:17:35Z",
215+ "mean": 1.021522912464469,
216+ "n_pasts": 160,
217+ "n_runs": 20,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.15251479344873567,
227- "se": 0.012370583268359306
226+ "sd": 0.1511869412879646,
227+ "se": 0.01195237717360297
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T16:20:34Z",
235- "mean": 1.2309171467964877,
236- "n_pasts": 152,
237- "n_runs": 19,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:18:59Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2256981234413187,
236+ "n_pasts": 160,
237+ "n_runs": 20,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.1953279458563603,
247- "se": 0.015843188481685703
246+ "sd": 0.19514253121726483,
247+ "se": 0.015427371675426679
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:35Z",
255- "mean": 0.4855905711419101,
256- "n_pasts": 152,
257- "n_runs": 19,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:13:50Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48393684007614735,
256+ "n_pasts": 160,
257+ "n_runs": 20,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2059093281421094,
265- "se": 0.016701451917646753
264+ "sd": 0.20577718365812392,
265+ "se": 0.016268114771361274
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:23:10Z",
273- "mean": 3.207131782338041,
274- "n_pasts": 152,
275- "n_runs": 19,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:14:27Z",
273+ "mean": 3.215971475426392,
274+ "n_pasts": 160,
275+ "n_runs": 20,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.32923287004154766,
283- "se": 0.026704312030549758
282+ "sd": 0.33974321703607985,
283+ "se": 0.026859059635673314
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:44Z",
291- "mean": 0.9738778763843934,
292- "n_pasts": 152,
293- "n_runs": 19,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:13:59Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9737708359376647,
292+ "n_pasts": 160,
293+ "n_runs": 20,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.1272827435503445,
301- "se": 0.010323993772079642
300+ "sd": 0.1258262030018643,
301+ "se": 0.009947434770415174
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:23:15Z",
309- "mean": 4.075823948765013,
310- "n_pasts": 152,
311- "n_runs": 19,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:14:37Z",
309+ "mean": 4.088511179077621,
310+ "n_pasts": 160,
311+ "n_runs": 20,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.20235440534662366,
319- "se": 0.016413109603699832
318+ "sd": 0.27722925008900634,
319+ "se": 0.021916896607542438
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:53Z",
327- "mean": 1.5592931051966392,
328- "n_pasts": 152,
329- "n_runs": 19,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:14:05Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5603377924235344,
328+ "n_pasts": 160,
329+ "n_runs": 20,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.11740731213373412,
337- "se": 0.009522990512738685
336+ "sd": 0.12154945076873318,
337+ "se": 0.009609327819292529
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:59Z",
345- "mean": 2.296202137143028,
346- "n_pasts": 152,
347- "n_runs": 19,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:14:14Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2957114370323746,
346+ "n_pasts": 160,
347+ "n_runs": 20,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.143220201069654,
355- "se": 0.011616692276076415
354+ "sd": 0.14045077547017087,
355+ "se": 0.01110360874056616
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:24Z",
363- "mean": 2.103738321540227,
364- "n_pasts": 152,
365- "n_runs": 19,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T18:13:38Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1043230289061943,
364+ "n_pasts": 160,
365+ "n_runs": 20,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.05211570953196064,
372- "se": 0.004227142231756341
371+ "sd": 0.051792268757902576,
372+ "se": 0.0040945383615638
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
379- "last_utc": "2026-08-03T15:22:29Z",
380- "mean": 5.985041638864695,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-03T16:48:49Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-03T18:41:57Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 19
469+ "total_runs": 20
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -454,3 +454,27 @@
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