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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 58 from efed18a 11e36a3 51 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 58 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 58 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 58 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (50 runs, generated 2026-08-07T14:12:57Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9361 0.0060 400 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5465 0.0118 400 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3158 0.0058 400 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9697 0.0231 400 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7178 0.0066 400 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1334 0.0114 400 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4793 0.0122 400 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4540 0.0097 400 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7578 0.0139 400 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6542 0.0099 400 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9932 0.0089 400 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2306 0.0111 400 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4886 0.0106 400 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1920 0.0147 400 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9717 0.0053 400 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0853 0.0122 400 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5583 0.0054 400 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2966 0.0074 400 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1072 0.0042 400 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0209 0.0229 400 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0652 0.0045 400 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0934 0.0545 400 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0312 0.0065 400 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0702 0.0160 400 5.0480
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