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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 49 from efed18a 0bd317d 43 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 49 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 49 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 49 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (42 runs, generated 2026-08-06T11:21:52Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9397 0.0062 336 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5497 0.0127 336 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3139 0.0067 336 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9790 0.0269 336 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7171 0.0073 336 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1301 0.0132 336 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4749 0.0132 336 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4584 0.0102 336 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7538 0.0153 336 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6535 0.0110 336 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9990 0.0097 336 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2215 0.0100 336 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4904 0.0118 336 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1974 0.0166 336 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9704 0.0061 336 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0811 0.0133 336 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5587 0.0061 336 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2953 0.0077 336 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1086 0.0049 336 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0117 0.0240 336 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0634 0.0047 336 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0976 0.0568 336 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0354 0.0074 336 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0597 0.0162 336 5.0480
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