estimates: run 49 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (41 runs, generated 2026-08-06T07:25:40Z)
24+## Current state (42 runs, generated 2026-08-06T11:21:52Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9406 | 0.0062 | 328 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5517 | 0.0130 | 328 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3171 | 0.0066 | 328 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9769 | 0.0275 | 328 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7173 | 0.0074 | 328 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1323 | 0.0134 | 328 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4762 | 0.0135 | 328 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4581 | 0.0104 | 328 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7530 | 0.0154 | 328 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6517 | 0.0113 | 328 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9978 | 0.0099 | 328 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2218 | 0.0102 | 328 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4914 | 0.0119 | 328 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1994 | 0.0170 | 328 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9713 | 0.0061 | 328 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0821 | 0.0136 | 328 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5591 | 0.0063 | 328 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2939 | 0.0077 | 328 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1081 | 0.0050 | 328 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0110 | 0.0245 | 328 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0643 | 0.0048 | 328 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0793 | 0.0569 | 328 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0352 | 0.0076 | 328 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0619 | 0.0165 | 328 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9397 | 0.0062 | 336 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5497 | 0.0127 | 336 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3139 | 0.0067 | 336 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9790 | 0.0269 | 336 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7171 | 0.0073 | 336 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1301 | 0.0132 | 336 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4749 | 0.0132 | 336 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4584 | 0.0102 | 336 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7538 | 0.0153 | 336 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6535 | 0.0110 | 336 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9990 | 0.0097 | 336 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2215 | 0.0100 | 336 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4904 | 0.0118 | 336 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1974 | 0.0166 | 336 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9704 | 0.0061 | 336 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0811 | 0.0133 | 336 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5587 | 0.0061 | 336 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2953 | 0.0077 | 336 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1086 | 0.0049 | 336 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0117 | 0.0240 | 336 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0634 | 0.0047 | 336 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0976 | 0.0568 | 336 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0354 | 0.0074 | 336 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0597 | 0.0162 | 336 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:19:32Z",
9- "mean": 0.9406088543249962,
10- "n_pasts": 328,
11- "n_runs": 41,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:09:09Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9396725672742954,
10+ "n_pasts": 336,
11+ "n_runs": 42,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1116453798425915,
22- "se": 0.006164584837611645
21+ "sd": 0.11307902904830436,
22+ "se": 0.006168966787213868
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:24:01Z",
30- "mean": 2.5516773799356454,
31- "n_pasts": 328,
32- "n_runs": 41,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:16:19Z",
30+ "mean": 2.549689258967991,
31+ "n_pasts": 336,
32+ "n_runs": 42,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2351477662436505,
43- "se": 0.012983863339688805
42+ "sd": 0.2336192236106575,
43+ "se": 0.012744973523722055
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:20:10Z",
51- "mean": 1.3170590366833026,
52- "n_pasts": 328,
53- "n_runs": 41,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:10:05Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3138727065885831,
52+ "n_pasts": 336,
53+ "n_runs": 42,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11921892835895526,
64- "se": 0.006582764097843615
63+ "sd": 0.1221788811716032,
64+ "se": 0.006665404420165316
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:25:39Z",
72- "mean": 2.9769049533213234,
73- "n_pasts": 328,
74- "n_runs": 41,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:21:52Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9789775394680187,
73+ "n_pasts": 336,
74+ "n_runs": 42,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.49756691306499073,
85- "se": 0.027473536767058715
84+ "sd": 0.4921900631676797,
85+ "se": 0.026851169294892722
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:21:18Z",
93- "mean": 1.717330039029888,
94- "n_pasts": 328,
95- "n_runs": 41,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:11:36Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7170784692841996,
94+ "n_pasts": 336,
95+ "n_runs": 42,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1339825854772867,
106- "se": 0.00739795069085517
105+ "sd": 0.13399354149769516,
106+ "se": 0.007309946982718984
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:22:30Z",
114- "mean": 2.1322532780972008,
115- "n_pasts": 328,
116- "n_runs": 41,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:12:57Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1301082292816993,
115+ "n_pasts": 336,
116+ "n_runs": 42,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.24327177228131397,
127- "se": 0.013432436531979028
126+ "sd": 0.24188250464047528,
127+ "se": 0.013195772461910539
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:10:09Z",
135- "mean": 0.47618738945123357,
136- "n_pasts": 328,
137- "n_runs": 41,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:59:41Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4749174245323476,
136+ "n_pasts": 336,
137+ "n_runs": 42,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.24396517013569136,
147- "se": 0.013470723023596988
146+ "sd": 0.2424945083233821,
147+ "se": 0.013229160000035683
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:13:43Z",
155- "mean": 1.4581330957633576,
156- "n_pasts": 328,
157- "n_runs": 41,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:06:02Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4583779909523276,
156+ "n_pasts": 336,
157+ "n_runs": 42,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18778877661109053,
167- "se": 0.010368900590445589
166+ "sd": 0.18741975992810983,
167+ "se": 0.010224586150012078
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:10:58Z",
175- "mean": 0.7530341696620488,
176- "n_pasts": 328,
177- "n_runs": 41,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:00:31Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7538328034816993,
176+ "n_pasts": 336,
177+ "n_runs": 42,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2795173842102296,
187- "se": 0.015433765651392435
186+ "sd": 0.27994894437598794,
187+ "se": 0.015272467003880318
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:18:47Z",
195- "mean": 1.6517419515672045,
196- "n_pasts": 328,
197- "n_runs": 41,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:08:06Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6535046641217923,
196+ "n_pasts": 336,
197+ "n_runs": 42,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2037537991320083,
207- "se": 0.01125042149084771
206+ "sd": 0.20238450218893697,
207+ "se": 0.011040979771032852
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:11:44Z",
215- "mean": 0.9978385346770933,
216- "n_pasts": 328,
217- "n_runs": 41,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:01:32Z",
215+ "mean": 0.999013097013629,
216+ "n_pasts": 336,
217+ "n_runs": 42,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.17854167691994843,
227- "se": 0.009858314925116057
226+ "sd": 0.17854745937679575,
227+ "se": 0.00974056247305023
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:12:31Z",
235- "mean": 1.2217665501936574,
236- "n_pasts": 328,
237- "n_runs": 41,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T11:03:20Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2215157132393888,
236+ "n_pasts": 336,
237+ "n_runs": 42,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.1848542526926139,
247- "se": 0.010206868613135332
246+ "sd": 0.18381557253317193,
247+ "se": 0.010027961607677452
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:14Z",
255- "mean": 0.49137227479266177,
256- "n_pasts": 328,
257- "n_runs": 41,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:04Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4903903713535237,
256+ "n_pasts": 336,
257+ "n_runs": 42,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2160370978910805,
265- "se": 0.011928653204446514
264+ "sd": 0.2159617632845057,
265+ "se": 0.01178168008889741
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:28Z",
273- "mean": 3.199447337718315,
274- "n_pasts": 328,
275- "n_runs": 41,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:29Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1973931160640725,
274+ "n_pasts": 336,
275+ "n_runs": 42,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.3081172476412112,
283- "se": 0.01701292893350018
282+ "sd": 0.3049151134869812,
283+ "se": 0.016634483191549303
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:17Z",
291- "mean": 0.9713090537893602,
292- "n_pasts": 328,
293- "n_runs": 41,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:09Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9703686213522715,
292+ "n_pasts": 336,
293+ "n_runs": 42,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.11059481332911905,
301- "se": 0.006106577005948699
300+ "sd": 0.11103128024392665,
301+ "se": 0.006057252931257724
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:31Z",
309- "mean": 4.082148501860135,
310- "n_pasts": 328,
311- "n_runs": 41,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:34Z",
309+ "mean": 4.081120559379224,
310+ "n_pasts": 336,
311+ "n_runs": 42,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24704616972853918,
319- "se": 0.01364084276703407
318+ "sd": 0.24462939057639116,
319+ "se": 0.01334562737532416
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:20Z",
327- "mean": 1.5591244010510816,
328- "n_pasts": 328,
329- "n_runs": 41,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:14Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5587405012411077,
328+ "n_pasts": 336,
329+ "n_runs": 42,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.11352569080314161,
337- "se": 0.00626840764204605
336+ "sd": 0.1125637250758584,
337+ "se": 0.006140854650789522
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:09:24Z",
345- "mean": 2.293891693951622,
346- "n_pasts": 328,
347- "n_runs": 41,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-06T10:58:24Z",
345+ "mean": 2.295268726659009,
346+ "n_pasts": 336,
347+ "n_runs": 42,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.1396907434622352,
355- "se": 0.007713130989532263
354+ "sd": 0.14072281072191087,
355+ "se": 0.007677058715953569
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-06T07:08:59Z",
363- "mean": 2.1081295061088046,
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.29882996101743226,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-06T07:25:40Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-06T11:21:52Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 41
469+ "total_runs": 42
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -982,3 +982,27 @@
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