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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 23 from efed18a 0294378 17 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 23 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 23 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 23 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (16 runs, generated 2026-08-03T04:42:08Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9448 0.0104 128 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5499 0.0213 128 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3217 0.0118 128 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9592 0.0336 128 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7104 0.0112 128 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1532 0.0225 128 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4584 0.0208 128 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4585 0.0147 128 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7305 0.0251 128 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6356 0.0187 128 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0220 0.0135 128 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2271 0.0166 128 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4876 0.0186 128 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1945 0.0285 128 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9757 0.0110 128 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0789 0.0190 128 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5586 0.0108 128 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2988 0.0129 128 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1023 0.0046 128 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9804 0.0326 128 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0590 0.0057 128 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 6.9975 0.0656 128 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0303 0.0109 128 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0613 0.0246 128 5.0480
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