estimates: run 23 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (15 runs, generated 2026-08-02T23:47:38Z)
24+## Current state (16 runs, generated 2026-08-03T04:42:08Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9410 | 0.0109 | 120 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5407 | 0.0219 | 120 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3210 | 0.0120 | 120 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9646 | 0.0351 | 120 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7123 | 0.0119 | 120 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1515 | 0.0231 | 120 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4697 | 0.0214 | 120 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4597 | 0.0150 | 120 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7273 | 0.0261 | 120 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6346 | 0.0195 | 120 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0177 | 0.0142 | 120 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2286 | 0.0176 | 120 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4766 | 0.0183 | 120 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1945 | 0.0304 | 120 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9809 | 0.0113 | 120 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0759 | 0.0199 | 120 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5592 | 0.0111 | 120 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3026 | 0.0133 | 120 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1033 | 0.0048 | 120 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9749 | 0.0329 | 120 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0604 | 0.0058 | 120 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0064 | 0.0694 | 120 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0322 | 0.0110 | 120 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0669 | 0.0259 | 120 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9448 | 0.0104 | 128 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5499 | 0.0213 | 128 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3217 | 0.0118 | 128 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9592 | 0.0336 | 128 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7104 | 0.0112 | 128 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1532 | 0.0225 | 128 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4584 | 0.0208 | 128 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4585 | 0.0147 | 128 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7305 | 0.0251 | 128 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6356 | 0.0187 | 128 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0220 | 0.0135 | 128 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2271 | 0.0166 | 128 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4876 | 0.0186 | 128 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1945 | 0.0285 | 128 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9757 | 0.0110 | 128 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0789 | 0.0190 | 128 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5586 | 0.0108 | 128 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2988 | 0.0129 | 128 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1023 | 0.0046 | 128 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9804 | 0.0326 | 128 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0590 | 0.0057 | 128 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9975 | 0.0656 | 128 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0303 | 0.0109 | 128 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0613 | 0.0246 | 128 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:34:16Z",
9- "mean": 0.9410403565055893,
10- "n_pasts": 120,
11- "n_runs": 15,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:24:38Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9447763564631841,
10+ "n_pasts": 128,
11+ "n_runs": 16,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1195948665993866,
22- "se": 0.010917467699717532
21+ "sd": 0.11732466116074718,
22+ "se": 0.010370132938397286
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:42:48Z",
30- "mean": 2.5406529492609793,
31- "n_pasts": 120,
32- "n_runs": 15,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:34:52Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5499202043907276,
31+ "n_pasts": 128,
32+ "n_runs": 16,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.24029249232838734,
43- "se": 0.021935603074565803
42+ "sd": 0.24095174199693475,
43+ "se": 0.021297326338093
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:35:52Z",
51- "mean": 1.3210427210690472,
52- "n_pasts": 120,
53- "n_runs": 15,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:25:22Z",
51+ "mean": 1.321704049872954,
52+ "n_pasts": 128,
53+ "n_runs": 16,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.13182341167787504,
64- "se": 0.012033776030543682
63+ "sd": 0.13299259669213429,
64+ "se": 0.011754995871076972
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:47:38Z",
72- "mean": 2.964588666699828,
73- "n_pasts": 120,
74- "n_runs": 15,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:42:08Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9592433995595786,
73+ "n_pasts": 128,
74+ "n_runs": 16,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.3842038053413584,
85- "se": 0.0350728484774643
84+ "sd": 0.3805429240679539,
85+ "se": 0.03363556026762596
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:37:38Z",
93- "mean": 1.7122786534197754,
94- "n_pasts": 120,
95- "n_runs": 15,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:26:18Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7104459349745709,
94+ "n_pasts": 128,
95+ "n_runs": 16,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13028764230171147,
106- "se": 0.011893580108801947
105+ "sd": 0.12715042606867763,
106+ "se": 0.01123861606299009
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:39:29Z",
114- "mean": 2.1515169269224255,
115- "n_pasts": 120,
116- "n_runs": 15,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:30:04Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1531682289786755,
115+ "n_pasts": 128,
116+ "n_runs": 16,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.2533139711016579,
127- "se": 0.023124296017264966
126+ "sd": 0.25455490051833585,
127+ "se": 0.022499687042597784
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:27:34Z",
135- "mean": 0.46974981727094184,
136- "n_pasts": 120,
137- "n_runs": 15,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:05:37Z",
135+ "mean": 0.45839947089898786,
136+ "n_pasts": 128,
137+ "n_runs": 16,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23480647203234023,
147- "se": 0.02143480023005311
146+ "sd": 0.2354112962102221,
147+ "se": 0.020807615489770382
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:31:51Z",
155- "mean": 1.4597085782353065,
156- "n_pasts": 120,
157- "n_runs": 15,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:18:27Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4584658264726211,
156+ "n_pasts": 128,
157+ "n_runs": 16,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.1641151789923532,
167- "se": 0.014981597593851636
166+ "sd": 0.16577361850774602,
167+ "se": 0.01465245622358237
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:28:23Z",
175- "mean": 0.7272712061397683,
176- "n_pasts": 120,
177- "n_runs": 15,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:06:27Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7305257189601969,
176+ "n_pasts": 128,
177+ "n_runs": 16,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2864003832711948,
187- "se": 0.026144658399293103
186+ "sd": 0.28440527586970865,
187+ "se": 0.025138112396587718
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:33:25Z",
195- "mean": 1.6346360584571966,
196- "n_pasts": 120,
197- "n_runs": 15,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:23:31Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6355961077938252,
196+ "n_pasts": 128,
197+ "n_runs": 16,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.21398963805659463,
207- "se": 0.019534491972660474
206+ "sd": 0.21134350623749515,
207+ "se": 0.018680303302534278
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:29:11Z",
215- "mean": 1.017684612391225,
216- "n_pasts": 120,
217- "n_runs": 15,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:07:43Z",
215+ "mean": 1.022000389387868,
216+ "n_pasts": 128,
217+ "n_runs": 16,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.1552924126448042,
227- "se": 0.014176192902493293
226+ "sd": 0.15286588046519758,
227+ "se": 0.013511562586124173
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:30:27Z",
235- "mean": 1.2286386640729299,
236- "n_pasts": 120,
237- "n_runs": 15,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:08:21Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2271283995239055,
236+ "n_pasts": 128,
237+ "n_runs": 16,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.19246495879579845,
247- "se": 0.01756956657696019
246+ "sd": 0.18752548241344336,
247+ "se": 0.016575067532478057
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:24:44Z",
255- "mean": 0.47662014971867733,
256- "n_pasts": 120,
257- "n_runs": 15,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:03:47Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48763028099004785,
256+ "n_pasts": 128,
257+ "n_runs": 16,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.2000363781785417,
265- "se": 0.018260739441670244
264+ "sd": 0.2102750263375961,
265+ "se": 0.01858586212968676
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:26:34Z",
273- "mean": 3.194454217489931,
274- "n_pasts": 120,
275- "n_runs": 15,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:04:20Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1945119173303307,
274+ "n_pasts": 128,
275+ "n_runs": 16,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.3325301986194895,
283- "se": 0.030355715139261275
282+ "sd": 0.32280619199595995,
283+ "se": 0.02853230592116874
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:26:00Z",
291- "mean": 0.9808627077025487,
292- "n_pasts": 120,
293- "n_runs": 15,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:03:52Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9756537828795523,
292+ "n_pasts": 128,
293+ "n_runs": 16,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.12364605836697314,
301- "se": 0.011287289219031929
300+ "sd": 0.12457643408272465,
301+ "se": 0.011011105164491691
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:26:39Z",
309- "mean": 4.075867245348472,
310- "n_pasts": 120,
311- "n_runs": 15,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:04:27Z",
309+ "mean": 4.078937071279458,
310+ "n_pasts": 128,
311+ "n_runs": 16,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.21751188985390063,
319- "se": 0.019856028099760073
318+ "sd": 0.21524975876148594,
319+ "se": 0.019025570508626896
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:26:15Z",
327- "mean": 1.559231771829553,
328- "n_pasts": 120,
329- "n_runs": 15,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:04:07Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5585770102112844,
328+ "n_pasts": 128,
329+ "n_runs": 16,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.1221068553887252,
337- "se": 0.011146779853737673
336+ "sd": 0.12172778995645478,
337+ "se": 0.01075931821713261
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:26:26Z",
345- "mean": 2.3026223344210055,
346- "n_pasts": 120,
347- "n_runs": 15,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:04:14Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2987987638009604,
346+ "n_pasts": 128,
347+ "n_runs": 16,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.1451931358252312,
355- "se": 0.013254259281065097
354+ "sd": 0.1456170460022056,
355+ "se": 0.012870850085564127
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:24:34Z",
363- "mean": 2.1032969076952677,
364- "n_pasts": 120,
365- "n_runs": 15,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:03:36Z",
363+ "mean": 2.102257371469787,
364+ "n_pasts": 128,
365+ "n_runs": 16,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.05266084667858501,
372- "se": 0.004807255603863669
371+ "sd": 0.05209990253567209,
372+ "se": 0.004605024297766491
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
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428428 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180641,
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434434 "params": {
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440+ "se": 0.010913916199808724
441441 },
442442 {
443443 "L": 1,
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446446 "id": "none_s8",
447- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T23:24:36Z",
448- "mean": 5.066873176835516,
449- "n_pasts": 120,
450- "n_runs": 15,
447+ "last_utc": "2026-08-03T04:03:38Z",
448+ "mean": 5.061317264793692,
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450+ "n_runs": 16,
451451 "params": {
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453453 "sigma": 8.0
454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.28350347032976164,
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456+ "sd": 0.27834606168532355,
457+ "se": 0.024602548466782666
458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-02T23:47:38Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-03T04:42:08Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 15
469+ "total_runs": 16
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -358,3 +358,27 @@
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