1# Cached entropy estimates
3Machine-generated by [`.github/workflows/estimates.yml`][wf] on `main` — do not
4edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent
5pasts, appends one record per cell to `runs.jsonl`, and rebuilds
6`estimates.json` from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.
8- **`runs.jsonl`** — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the
9 cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares,
10 the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times
11 (`thin='auto'` matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the
12 seed, and the code commit that produced them.
13- **`estimates.json`** — pooled `mean` and `se` per cell over every past ever
14 drawn for it, alongside the analytic `predicted` rate for comparison.
16The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the
17entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.
19Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
20`access-control-allow-origin: *`):
22 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
24## Current state (52 runs, generated 2026-08-07T17:43:58Z)
26| cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
27| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9371 | 0.0059 | 416 | 0.9513 |
29| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5492 | 0.0115 | 416 | 2.5680 |
30| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3161 | 0.0057 | 416 | 1.3319 |
31| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9696 | 0.0225 | 416 | 2.9938 |
32| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7187 | 0.0066 | 416 | 1.7342 |
33| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1327 | 0.0111 | 416 | 2.1476 |
34| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4753 | 0.0119 | 416 | 0.6166 |
35| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4551 | 0.0095 | 416 | 1.4888 |
36| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7554 | 0.0136 | 416 | 0.8251 |
37| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6578 | 0.0097 | 416 | 1.7179 |
38| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9957 | 0.0086 | 416 | 1.0415 |
39| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2278 | 0.0109 | 416 | 1.2632 |
40| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4873 | 0.0104 | 416 | 0.6100 |
41| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1910 | 0.0142 | 416 | 3.1777 |
42| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9719 | 0.0052 | 416 | 0.9825 |
43| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0832 | 0.0118 | 416 | 4.1125 |
44| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5612 | 0.0053 | 416 | 1.5529 |
45| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2979 | 0.0074 | 416 | 2.3064 |
46| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1069 | 0.0041 | 416 | 2.1048 |
47| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0273 | 0.0227 | 416 | 6.0473 |
48| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0646 | 0.0044 | 416 | 3.0620 |
49| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0849 | 0.0528 | 416 | 7.0472 |
50| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0332 | 0.0069 | 416 | 4.0508 |
51| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0647 | 0.0155 | 416 | 5.0480 |
53[wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml