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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 172 from efed18a 9e233c8 160 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 172 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 172 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 172 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (159 runs, generated 2026-08-17T15:21:47Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9341 0.0034 1272 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5516 0.0074 1272 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3133 0.0032 1272 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9828 0.0178 1272 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7271 0.0042 1272 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1303 0.0053 1272 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4794 0.0066 1272 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4449 0.0059 1272 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7579 0.0075 1272 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6668 0.0059 1272 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9921 0.0053 1272 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2089 0.0059 1272 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4811 0.0059 1272 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1736 0.0067 1272 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9745 0.0027 1272 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0886 0.0068 1272 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5558 0.0029 1272 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3101 0.0051 1272 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1060 0.0019 1272 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0195 0.0161 1272 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0642 0.0032 1272 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0474 0.0291 1272 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0426 0.0041 1272 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0458 0.0078 1272 5.0480
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