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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 84 from efed18a 91ccb5c 77 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 84 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 84 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 84 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (76 runs, generated 2026-08-09T21:20:05Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9319 0.0050 608 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5458 0.0090 608 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3117 0.0047 608 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9589 0.0172 608 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7205 0.0053 608 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1363 0.0088 608 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4744 0.0095 608 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4481 0.0075 608 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7572 0.0111 608 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6556 0.0085 608 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9882 0.0078 608 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2263 0.0084 608 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4774 0.0084 608 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1833 0.0106 608 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9731 0.0041 608 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0825 0.0096 608 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0043 608 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3017 0.0061 608 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1076 0.0030 608 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0326 0.0199 608 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0656 0.0038 608 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0819 0.0429 608 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0378 0.0056 608 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0727 0.0129 608 5.0480
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