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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 119 from efed18a 45178e5 107 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 119 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 119 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 119 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (106 runs, generated 2026-08-13T03:15:47Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9318 0.0043 848 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5423 0.0078 848 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3095 0.0040 848 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9694 0.0176 848 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7237 0.0046 848 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1326 0.0069 848 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4768 0.0080 848 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4448 0.0064 848 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7618 0.0093 848 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6663 0.0071 848 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9919 0.0065 848 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2109 0.0075 848 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4731 0.0070 848 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1799 0.0089 848 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9753 0.0033 848 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0865 0.0083 848 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5586 0.0037 848 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3064 0.0055 848 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1059 0.0024 848 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0149 0.0161 848 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0657 0.0031 848 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0616 0.0382 848 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0362 0.0046 848 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0605 0.0106 848 5.0480
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