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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 151 from efed18a 44d1c8c 139 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 151 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 151 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 151 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (138 runs, generated 2026-08-15T21:23:19Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9328 0.0038 1104 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5507 0.0082 1104 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3126 0.0034 1104 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9837 0.0184 1104 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7245 0.0042 1104 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1300 0.0057 1104 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4777 0.0070 1104 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4413 0.0059 1104 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7614 0.0080 1104 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6677 0.0064 1104 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9933 0.0057 1104 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2089 0.0065 1104 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4813 0.0064 1104 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1747 0.0074 1104 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9757 0.0029 1104 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0889 0.0074 1104 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5563 0.0032 1104 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3081 0.0050 1104 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1054 0.0020 1104 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0089 0.0147 1104 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0671 0.0035 1104 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0498 0.0316 1104 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0386 0.0041 1104 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0525 0.0087 1104 5.0480
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