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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 37 from efed18a 18f2c34 31 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 37 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 37 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 37 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (30 runs, generated 2026-08-04T22:15:23Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9393 0.0071 240 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5379 0.0134 240 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3205 0.0079 240 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9789 0.0344 240 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7163 0.0088 240 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1367 0.0139 240 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4721 0.0161 240 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4531 0.0105 240 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7446 0.0185 240 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6517 0.0132 240 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0056 0.0112 240 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2164 0.0130 240 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4798 0.0134 240 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1975 0.0206 240 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9739 0.0075 240 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0816 0.0161 240 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5617 0.0078 240 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2958 0.0094 240 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1052 0.0034 240 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0082 0.0262 240 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0653 0.0056 240 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0074 0.0514 240 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0345 0.0088 240 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0639 0.0170 240 5.0480
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