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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 110 from efed18a 16a9f62 98 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 110 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 110 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 110 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (97 runs, generated 2026-08-12T08:23:57Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9311 0.0045 776 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5423 0.0078 776 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3101 0.0042 776 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9722 0.0189 776 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7228 0.0048 776 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1336 0.0074 776 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4783 0.0083 776 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4460 0.0067 776 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7640 0.0096 776 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6650 0.0073 776 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9876 0.0070 776 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2150 0.0079 776 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4713 0.0073 776 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1832 0.0094 776 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9751 0.0035 776 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0862 0.0085 776 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0038 776 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3036 0.0054 776 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1062 0.0026 776 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0155 0.0169 776 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0656 0.0033 776 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0823 0.0409 776 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0375 0.0049 776 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0612 0.0106 776 5.0480
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