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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 98 from efed18a 03437ae 86 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 98 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 98 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 98 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (85 runs, generated 2026-08-11T05:57:19Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9319 0.0048 680 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5429 0.0085 680 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3105 0.0045 680 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9719 0.0199 680 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7208 0.0050 680 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1362 0.0081 680 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4732 0.0090 680 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4447 0.0071 680 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7619 0.0104 680 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6611 0.0080 680 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9883 0.0074 680 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2173 0.0083 680 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4783 0.0080 680 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1861 0.0104 680 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9733 0.0038 680 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0855 0.0090 680 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5558 0.0040 680 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3006 0.0057 680 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1058 0.0028 680 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0213 0.0183 680 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0650 0.0035 680 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0788 0.0396 680 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0387 0.0053 680 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0664 0.0118 680 5.0480
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