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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 59 from efed18a 01225e2 52 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 59 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 59 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 59 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (51 runs, generated 2026-08-07T15:48:22Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9370 0.0059 408 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5473 0.0116 408 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3153 0.0057 408 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9704 0.0229 408 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7181 0.0065 408 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1334 0.0113 408 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4791 0.0120 408 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4536 0.0096 408 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7566 0.0138 408 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6550 0.0097 408 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9947 0.0087 408 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2313 0.0109 408 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4897 0.0106 408 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1910 0.0144 408 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9718 0.0053 408 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0834 0.0120 408 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5596 0.0053 408 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2964 0.0073 408 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1068 0.0041 408 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0266 0.0230 408 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0645 0.0045 408 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0877 0.0537 408 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0339 0.0070 408 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0672 0.0158 408 5.0480
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