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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 94 from efed18a fbccd03 82 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 94 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 94 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 94 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (81 runs, generated 2026-08-10T19:48:11Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9325 0.0048 648 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5460 0.0088 648 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3102 0.0046 648 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9610 0.0163 648 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7196 0.0051 648 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1359 0.0084 648 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4752 0.0092 648 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4445 0.0073 648 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7613 0.0107 648 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6573 0.0081 648 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9875 0.0077 648 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2221 0.0083 648 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4803 0.0082 648 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1894 0.0108 648 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9738 0.0039 648 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0835 0.0091 648 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5565 0.0041 648 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3005 0.0059 648 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1068 0.0029 648 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0244 0.0190 648 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0657 0.0036 648 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0861 0.0411 648 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0379 0.0054 648 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0676 0.0123 648 5.0480
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