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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 42 from efed18a f54853e 36 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 42 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 42 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 42 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (35 runs, generated 2026-08-05T15:02:12Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9418 0.0065 280 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5471 0.0138 280 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3192 0.0072 280 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9735 0.0301 280 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7124 0.0079 280 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1345 0.0153 280 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4797 0.0147 280 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4550 0.0110 280 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7512 0.0169 280 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6536 0.0125 280 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0015 0.0105 280 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2182 0.0116 280 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4844 0.0127 280 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1941 0.0184 280 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9709 0.0069 280 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0774 0.0145 280 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5606 0.0070 280 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2950 0.0086 280 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1049 0.0031 280 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0047 0.0239 280 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0613 0.0050 280 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0181 0.0487 280 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0347 0.0081 280 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0591 0.0154 280 5.0480
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