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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 55 from efed18a f4c314d 48 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 55 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 55 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 55 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (47 runs, generated 2026-08-07T08:19:04Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9365 0.0060 376 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5473 0.0122 376 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3155 0.0061 376 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9702 0.0244 376 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7180 0.0069 376 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1324 0.0119 376 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4786 0.0123 376 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4549 0.0102 376 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7577 0.0142 376 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6530 0.0102 376 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9937 0.0093 376 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2302 0.0116 376 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4867 0.0109 376 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1946 0.0154 376 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9722 0.0056 376 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0802 0.0124 376 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5581 0.0056 376 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2970 0.0071 376 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1078 0.0044 376 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0229 0.0239 376 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0653 0.0047 376 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.1128 0.0574 376 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0324 0.0068 376 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0665 0.0156 376 5.0480
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