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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 74 from efed18a f1618ed 67 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 74 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 74 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 74 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (66 runs, generated 2026-08-08T23:09:01Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9333 0.0053 528 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5455 0.0098 528 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3116 0.0051 528 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9570 0.0187 528 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7212 0.0058 528 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1357 0.0098 528 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4754 0.0101 528 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4508 0.0082 528 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7601 0.0119 528 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6601 0.0089 528 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9887 0.0083 528 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2237 0.0093 528 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4762 0.0090 528 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1871 0.0118 528 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9728 0.0044 528 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0842 0.0104 528 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5585 0.0047 528 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3028 0.0066 528 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1072 0.0034 528 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0335 0.0220 528 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0676 0.0042 528 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0842 0.0468 528 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0382 0.0060 528 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0735 0.0142 528 5.0480
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