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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 130 from efed18a efad590 118 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 130 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 130 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 130 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (117 runs, generated 2026-08-14T03:57:36Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9323 0.0040 936 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5497 0.0090 936 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3099 0.0038 936 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9797 0.0203 936 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7258 0.0045 936 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1308 0.0064 936 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4773 0.0076 936 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4392 0.0062 936 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7617 0.0088 936 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6667 0.0067 936 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9924 0.0062 936 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2133 0.0071 936 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4785 0.0068 936 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1770 0.0083 936 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9748 0.0031 936 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0882 0.0077 936 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5572 0.0035 936 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3071 0.0052 936 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1060 0.0022 936 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0210 0.0156 936 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0666 0.0030 936 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0639 0.0353 936 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0365 0.0043 936 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0571 0.0098 936 5.0480
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