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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 148 from efed18a e79b039 136 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 148 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 148 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 148 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (135 runs, generated 2026-08-15T15:15:40Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9323 0.0038 1080 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5509 0.0083 1080 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3116 0.0034 1080 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9805 0.0185 1080 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7242 0.0042 1080 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1302 0.0058 1080 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4784 0.0071 1080 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4403 0.0060 1080 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7605 0.0081 1080 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6670 0.0065 1080 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9942 0.0057 1080 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2098 0.0065 1080 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4817 0.0064 1080 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1759 0.0076 1080 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9759 0.0029 1080 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0877 0.0074 1080 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5557 0.0032 1080 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3083 0.0050 1080 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1053 0.0020 1080 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0115 0.0150 1080 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0672 0.0036 1080 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0493 0.0320 1080 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0386 0.0042 1080 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0514 0.0088 1080 5.0480
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