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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 64 from efed18a e251d79 57 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 64 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 64 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 64 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (56 runs, generated 2026-08-08T02:52:29Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9373 0.0056 448 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5513 0.0111 448 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3131 0.0055 448 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9674 0.0213 448 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7199 0.0063 448 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1328 0.0105 448 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4732 0.0112 448 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4531 0.0090 448 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7538 0.0131 448 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6548 0.0092 448 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9951 0.0086 448 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2247 0.0103 448 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4840 0.0100 448 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1891 0.0134 448 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9722 0.0049 448 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0813 0.0110 448 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5598 0.0050 448 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2992 0.0072 448 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1066 0.0038 448 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0199 0.0216 448 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0651 0.0042 448 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0749 0.0502 448 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0339 0.0067 448 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0746 0.0157 448 5.0480
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