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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 40 from efed18a e11433b 34 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 40 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 40 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 40 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (33 runs, generated 2026-08-05T07:56:44Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9387 0.0067 264 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5378 0.0134 264 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3221 0.0073 264 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9739 0.0316 264 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7130 0.0082 264 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1399 0.0161 264 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4736 0.0152 264 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4523 0.0105 264 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7514 0.0174 264 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6549 0.0130 264 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 1.0057 0.0107 264 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2193 0.0121 264 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4852 0.0130 264 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1927 0.0189 264 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9734 0.0071 264 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0781 0.0152 264 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5607 0.0073 264 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2969 0.0089 264 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1058 0.0031 264 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 5.9968 0.0243 264 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0625 0.0052 264 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0264 0.0505 264 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0351 0.0085 264 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0603 0.0159 264 5.0480
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