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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 166 from efed18a d9c1701 154 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 166 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 166 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 166 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (153 runs, generated 2026-08-17T04:00:19Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9339 0.0035 1224 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5522 0.0076 1224 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3126 0.0032 1224 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9852 0.0184 1224 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7265 0.0043 1224 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1296 0.0054 1224 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4803 0.0067 1224 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4421 0.0056 1224 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7581 0.0077 1224 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6672 0.0060 1224 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9930 0.0054 1224 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2100 0.0060 1224 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4810 0.0060 1224 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1747 0.0069 1224 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9747 0.0027 1224 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0884 0.0070 1224 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5559 0.0030 1224 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.3087 0.0048 1224 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1055 0.0019 1224 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0194 0.0166 1224 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0653 0.0033 1224 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0405 0.0294 1224 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0402 0.0040 1224 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0461 0.0080 1224 5.0480
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