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github-actions[bot] estimates: run 46 from efed18a d96cf72 40 Commits
estimates.jsonestimates: run 46 from efed18a
README.mdestimates: run 46 from efed18a
runs.jsonlestimates: run 46 from efed18a

Cached entropy estimates#

Machine-generated by .github/workflows/estimates.yml on main — do not edit by hand. Every dispatch runs the whole grid again with fresh, independent pasts, appends one record per cell to runs.jsonl, and rebuilds estimates.json from the full log, so the means tighten run after run.

  • runs.jsonl — append-only, one JSON object per (cell, dispatch): the cell's parameters, the per-past values with their sum and sum of squares, the per-past resolved Gibbs thinning and probe autocorrelation times (thin='auto' matches thinning to each chain's measured mixing), the seed, and the code commit that produced them.
  • estimates.json — pooled mean and se per cell over every past ever drawn for it, alongside the analytic predicted rate for comparison.

The estimand is H(z_(M+1) | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample — an upper bound on the entropy rate of z that tightens as the conditioning window M grows.

Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends access-control-allow-origin: *):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json

Current state (39 runs, generated 2026-08-06T00:30:01Z)#

cell sigma M mean se pasts predicted
bp300-6000_s1 1 512 0.9421 0.0063 312 0.9513
bp300-6000_s16 16 512 2.5528 0.0136 312 2.5680
bp300-6000_s2 2 512 1.3183 0.0067 312 1.3319
bp300-6000_s32 32 512 2.9833 0.0287 312 2.9938
bp300-6000_s4 4 512 1.7138 0.0076 312 1.7342
bp300-6000_s8 8 512 2.1317 0.0140 312 2.1476
lp3000_s1 1 512 0.4799 0.0139 312 0.6166
lp3000_s16 16 512 1.4570 0.0107 312 1.4888
lp3000_s2 2 512 0.7544 0.0158 312 0.8251
lp3000_s32 32 512 1.6522 0.0114 312 1.7179
lp3000_s4 4 512 0.9981 0.0101 312 1.0415
lp3000_s8 8 512 1.2200 0.0106 312 1.2632
ma8_s1 1 512 0.4864 0.0120 312 0.6100
ma8_s16 16 512 3.1977 0.0175 312 3.1777
ma8_s2 2 512 0.9713 0.0063 312 0.9825
ma8_s32 32 512 4.0821 0.0141 312 4.1125
ma8_s4 4 512 1.5595 0.0065 312 1.5529
ma8_s8 8 512 2.2944 0.0080 312 2.3064
none_s1 1 512 2.1090 0.0052 312 2.1048
none_s16 16 512 6.0124 0.0253 312 6.0473
none_s2 2 512 3.0632 0.0050 312 3.0620
none_s32 32 512 7.0714 0.0577 312 7.0472
none_s4 4 512 4.0334 0.0076 312 4.0508
none_s8 8 512 5.0640 0.0172 312 5.0480
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